Betting exchanges are becoming ever more like financial markets. This has seen the rise of technical traders who find new and inventive ways of trading, little of it having anything to do with the underlying sports. Manual traders are having to give way to automation and algorithmic trading. To stay ahead, the most successful traders are resorting to systematic and automated methods to build and trade their strategies. This book demonstrates techniques for sports trading, including; fundamental and technical trading, statistical arbitrage, money management, Monte Carlo methods, machine learning and the increasing necessity for algorithmic trading.
Author: Pete Nordsted
Publisher: Harriman House Limited
Release Date: 2009
Trading the Betfair and sporting markets in-play is rapidly growing in popularity thanks to the increased sporting coverage available on many different satellite and cable channels. Many people start by just using Betfair to obtain better odds than those available at the traditional bookmakers. They then perhaps do a little more research and learn to trade the markets, but to make a regular profit a serious, disciplined and planned approach needs to be employed in order to not only win but keep on winning. 'Mastering Betfair' will take the reader through many of the low-risk strategies developed by the author over the past 3 years. The book also aims to highlight to the Betfair user the importance of employing disciplines - such as managing risk - that are normally associated with the financial markets, and indeed it is hoped that the book will also highlight to the financial trader the unique opportunities that are available on Betfair.
The Betfair exchange, coupled with its API, permits a suitably skilled trader to code complex trading applications, which would not look out of place in the financial markets. This book offers a sports trader the chance to build their own trading applications, regardless of their programming ability. Each chapter of Programming for Betfair contains snippets of code that combine to create a complete trading application. The application is geared towards horse racing but can easily be adapted to other sports on Betfair's exchange. Using Microsoft's Visual Studio (downloadable for free) the reader is shown how to code an application that will gather prices for any market on Betfair's exchange and then place bets into that market. The reader is shown how to automate their trading so that they can remove emotion from their trades and scale up their trading for increased profits. Further development of the application permits it to save data from Betfair onto the reader's hard drive for offline analysis and visualisation in a spreadsheet for the purpose of building trading algorithms. Also covered is an enhancement of Betfair's charts so that charts can be automatically updated and compared. The final chapter of the book discusses ideas for taking the application and the reader's skills to the next level. Topics discussed include constructing your own trading indicators, volume analysis, trend following, arbitrage, low-latency trading and many more.
Author: Joseph Mazur
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date: 2010-05-17
Why do so many gamblers risk it all when they know the odds of winning are against them? Why do they believe dice are "hot" in a winning streak? Why do we expect heads on a coin toss after several flips have turned up tails? What's Luck Got to Do with It? takes a lively and eye-opening look at the mathematics, history, and psychology of gambling to reveal the most widely held misconceptions about luck. It exposes the hazards of feeling lucky, and uses the mathematics of predictable outcomes to show when our chances of winning are actually good. Mathematician Joseph Mazur traces the history of gambling from the earliest known archaeological evidence of dice playing among Neolithic peoples to the first systematic mathematical studies of games of chance during the Renaissance, from government-administered lotteries to the glittering seductions of grand casinos, and on to the global economic crisis brought on by financiers' trillion-dollar bets. Using plenty of engaging anecdotes, Mazur explains the mathematics behind gambling--including the laws of probability, statistics, betting against expectations, and the law of large numbers--and describes the psychological and emotional factors that entice people to put their faith in winning that ever-elusive jackpot despite its mathematical improbability. As entertaining as it is informative, What's Luck Got to Do with It? demonstrates the pervasive nature of our belief in luck and the deceptive psychology of winning and losing. Some images inside the book are unavailable due to digital copyright restrictions.
Author: Robert P. Schumaker
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date: 2010-09-10
Data mining is the process of extracting hidden patterns from data, and it’s commonly used in business, bioinformatics, counter-terrorism, and, increasingly, in professional sports. First popularized in Michael Lewis’ best-selling Moneyball: The Art of Winning An Unfair Game, it is has become an intrinsic part of all professional sports the world over, from baseball to cricket to soccer. While an industry has developed based on statistical analysis services for any given sport, or even for betting behavior analysis on these sports, no research-level book has considered the subject in any detail until now. Sports Data Mining brings together in one place the state of the art as it concerns an international array of sports: baseball, football, basketball, soccer, greyhound racing are all covered, and the authors (including Hsinchun Chen, one of the most esteemed and well-known experts in data mining in the world) present the latest research, developments, software available, and applications for each sport. They even examine the hidden patterns in gaming and wagering, along with the most common systems for wager analysis.
Author: John Haigh
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
Release Date: 2003
"What are the odds against winning the Lotto, The Weakest Link, or Who Wants to be a Millionaire? The answer lies in the science of probability, yet many of us are unaware of how this science works. Every day, people make judgements on a wide variety of situations where chance plays a role, including buying insurance, betting on horse-racing, following medical advice - even carrying an umbrella. In Taking Chances, John Haigh guides the reader round common pitfalls, demonstrates how to make better-informed decisions, and shows where the odds can be unexpectedly in your favour. This new edition has been fully updated, and includes information on top television shows, plus a new chapter on Probability for Lawyers."--BOOK JACKET.
For the past 500 years, gamblers-led by mathematicians and scientists-have been trying to figure out how to pull the rug out from under Lady Luck. In The Perfect Bet, mathematician and award-winning writer Adam Kucharski tells the astonishing story of how the experts have succeeded, revolutionizing mathematics and science in the process. The house can seem unbeatable. Kucharski shows us just why it isn't. Even better, he demonstrates how the search for the perfect bet has been crucial for the scientific pursuit of a better world.
Author: Wayne Morgan
Release Date: 2018-06-09
Whether your new to Exchange Trading or experienced this book explains how losing less is more important than winning, if your trading is going nowhere and your losing money you know you shouldn't Chapter One has the answer(s). My guidance and advices will help you to build up your trading edge essential for success.
Author: Matt Sekerke
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date: 2015-08-19
Genre: Business & Economics
A risk measurement and management framework that takes model risk seriously Most financial risk models assume the future will look like the past, but effective risk management depends on identifying fundamental changes in the marketplace as they occur. Bayesian Risk Management details a more flexible approach to risk management, and provides tools to measure financial risk in a dynamic market environment. This book opens discussion about uncertainty in model parameters, model specifications, and model-driven forecasts in a way that standard statistical risk measurement does not. And unlike current machine learning-based methods, the framework presented here allows you to measure risk in a fully-Bayesian setting without losing the structure afforded by parametric risk and asset-pricing models. Recognize the assumptions embodied in classical statistics Quantify model risk along multiple dimensions without backtesting Model time series without assuming stationarity Estimate state-space time series models online with simulation methods Uncover uncertainty in workhorse risk and asset-pricing models Embed Bayesian thinking about risk within a complex organization Ignoring uncertainty in risk modeling creates an illusion of mastery and fosters erroneous decision-making. Firms who ignore the many dimensions of model risk measure too little risk, and end up taking on too much. Bayesian Risk Management provides a roadmap to better risk management through more circumspect measurement, with comprehensive treatment of model uncertainty.
Author: Joseph Buchdahl
Publisher: High Stakes Pub
Release Date: 2012-12-01
How do we know if we can beat the bookmaker? That's easy: just look at our bank balance. But how do we know if we've not just been lucky? More specifically, how do we know that someone who says he can do it, and who is selling his "expertise," can keep doing it again and again, through talent, skill, and hard work? This book examines the techniques available to answer that question, to identify those qualities, and to help the reader find value for money in an industry that appears to be largely built on trust and the influence of chance; to uncover the truth about sports tipsters and ultimately how to find the best tipsters—the "Black Cats."
Looking for a reliable resource to help you get started? This is why Betfair trading made simple was created. Betfair trading made simple is an entry level book designed to assist anybody that is interested in learning to trade on Betfair's Exchange, regardless of ability or sport. Promoted by Betfair themselves, Caan explains all that you will need to consider as an aspiring exchange trader. You will learn: - What is required to make money betting - The basics principles behind Betfair trading (step by step) - Factors behind gaining an unfair advantage - Simple start-up process (including tools) - How to strategically build a winning approach Primarily, Betfair trading made simple is not a strategy based book. However, there are a collection of strong hints and tips as to where the reader should be looking if they are to succeed. Also, several strategic approaches are broken down and explained. Prerequisites: for beginners, doesn't require prior trading knowledge. Learning to trade Betfair can be an arduous task. Particularly when you don't understand what's going on behind the scenes. All the moving numbers, charts, percentages and information. Nonetheless, on the other side, should you succeed - there are some massive benefits. Being your own boss, flexible working conditions and financial freedom to name a few... But where do you even start? These was the initial problem that we set out to solve within this book. Starting from nothing, we wanted to offer readers a quick, efficient and reliable starting resource that they can return to time and again. Making the process of learning to trade Betfair simple and convenient. For an entry level trader this book is worth far more than the listed cost. Providing a logical points and examples on route, Betfair trading made simple is the ideal solution in one neatly packaged book.
Author: Nick Mordin
Publisher: Aesculus Press Ltd
Release Date: 2003
Genre: Gambling systems
In Mordin On Time, Nick Mordin sets out his method for answering the most fundamental question facing punters in any race, namely: which is the fastest horse? He was timing the sections of races with a stop watch, estimating wind strength and direction, adjusting for movements of running rails, using projected times and calculating average times years before the best-selling American books on speed rating were published. This new edition incorporates much new material, including standard times for all Irish racecourses (plus the major French ones). Mordin On Time enables the reader to construct their own speed ratings wherever they live.