Improving Your NCAA Bracket with Statistics

Author: Tom Adams
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 9780429943959
Release Date: 2019-01-14
Genre: Mathematics

Twenty-four million people wager nearly $3 billion on college basketball pools each year, but few are aware that winning strategies have been developed by researchers at Harvard, Yale, and other universities over the past two decades. Bad advice from media sources and even our own psychological inclinations are often a bigger obstacle to winning than our pool opponents. Profit opportunities are missed and most brackets submitted to pools don’t have a breakeven chance to win money before the tournament begins. Improving Your NCAA® Bracket with Statistics is both an easy-to-use tip sheet to improve your winning odds and an intellectual history of how statistical reasoning has been applied to the bracket pool using standard and innovative methods. It covers bracket improvement methods ranging from those that require only the information in the seeded bracket to sophisticated estimation techniques available via online simulations. Included are: Prominently displayed bracket improvement tips based on the published research A history of the origins of the bracket pool A history of bracket improvement methods and their results in play Historical sketches and background information on the mathematical and statistical methods that have been used in bracket analysis A source list of good bracket pool advice available each year that seeks to be comprehensive Warnings about common bad advice that will hurt your chances Tom Adams’ work presenting bracket improvement methods has been featured in the New York Times, Sports Illustrated, and SmartMoney magazine.

Statistics and Health Care Fraud

Author: Tahir Ekin
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 9781315278247
Release Date: 2019-02-07
Genre: Mathematics

Statistics and Health Care Fraud: How to Save Billions helps the public to become more informed citizens through discussions of real world health care examples and fraud assessment applications. The author presents statistical and analytical methods used in health care fraud audits without requiring any mathematical background. The public suffers from health care overpayments either directly as patients or indirectly as taxpayers, and fraud analytics provides ways to handle the large size and complexity of these claims. The book starts with a brief overview of global healthcare systems such as U.S. Medicare. This is followed by a discussion of medical overpayments and assessment initiatives using a variety of real world examples. The book covers subjects as: • Description and visualization of medical claims data • Prediction of fraudulent transactions • Detection of excessive billings • Revealing new fraud patterns • Challenges and opportunities with health care fraud analytics Dr. Tahir Ekin is the Brandon Dee Roberts Associate Professor of Quantitative Methods in McCoy College of Business, Texas State University. His previous work experience includes a working as a statistician on health care fraud detection. His scholarly work on health care fraud has been published in a variety of academic journals including International Statistical Review, The American Statistician, and Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry. He is a recipient of the Texas State University 2018 Presidential Distinction Award in Scholar Activities and the ASA/NISS y-Bis 2016 Best Paper Awards. He has developed and taught courses in the areas of business statistics, optimization, data mining and analytics. Dr. Ekin also serves as Vice President of the International Society for Business and Industrial Statistics.

Bayesian Statistical Methods

Author: Brian J. Reich
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 9780429514340
Release Date: 2019-05-07
Genre: Mathematics

Bayesian Statistical Methods provides data scientists with the foundational and computational tools needed to carry out a Bayesian analysis. This book focuses on Bayesian methods applied routinely in practice including multiple linear regression, mixed effects models and generalized linear models (GLM). The authors include many examples with complete R code and comparisons with analogous frequentist procedures. In addition to the basic concepts of Bayesian inferential methods, the book covers many general topics: Advice on selecting prior distributions Computational methods including Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Model-comparison and goodness-of-fit measures, including sensitivity to priors Frequentist properties of Bayesian methods Case studies covering advanced topics illustrate the flexibility of the Bayesian approach: Semiparametric regression Handling of missing data using predictive distributions Priors for high-dimensional regression models Computational techniques for large datasets Spatial data analysis The advanced topics are presented with sufficient conceptual depth that the reader will be able to carry out such analysis and argue the relative merits of Bayesian and classical methods. A repository of R code, motivating data sets, and complete data analyses are available on the book’s website. Brian J. Reich, Associate Professor of Statistics at North Carolina State University, is currently the editor-in-chief of the Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics and was awarded the LeRoy & Elva Martin Teaching Award. Sujit K. Ghosh, Professor of Statistics at North Carolina State University, has over 22 years of research and teaching experience in conducting Bayesian analyses, received the Cavell Brownie mentoring award, and served as the Deputy Director at the Statistical and Applied Mathematical Sciences Institute.

Measuring Crime

Author: Sharon L. Lohr
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 9780429577055
Release Date: 2019-03-29
Genre: Law

Crime statistics are everywhere, but how do you know when they’re valid? If a newspaper report says "the rate of overall violent crime decreased by 0.9 percent," how can you tell where that statistic came from, what it measures, and how accurate it is? Is it worth repeating or sharing? Measuring Crime: Behind the Statistics gives you the tools to interpret and evaluate crime statistics’ quality and usefulness. The book focuses on ways of thinking about crime statistics (no formulas!) and features Eight questions you should ask before quoting a statistic The two sources of information about homicide FBI statistics: what do they measure? How victimization surveys can reflect your experiences even though you were not asked to participate Special considerations when interpreting statistics about sexual assault and fraud Examples of experiments and studies on how to improve crime statistics Two online supplements containing additional details and links to data sources Whether you are a law enforcement professional, journalist, student, or interested citizen, Measuring Crime: Behind the Statistics will tell you how to read statistics as a statistician would. Sharon Lohr, the author of Sampling: Design and Analysis, has published widely about statistical methods for education, public policy, law, and crime. She has been recognized as Fellow of the American Statistical Association, elected member of the International Statistical Institute, and recipient of the Gertrude M. Cox Statistics Award and the Deming Lecturer Award. Formerly Dean’s Distinguished Professor of Statistics at Arizona State University and a Vice President at Westat, she is now a freelance statistical consultant and writer. Visit her website at "The book aims to achieve two goals: introduce statistical ideas to a general audience and provide an overview of US crime statistics. These are disparate topics, but in the way they are approached here, there is a strong synergy that reinforces both aspects. One the one hand, the reader's natural curiosity about crime (what is it, how are crime events classified and reported, how reliable are the numbers you see in the newspaper, etc.) will help him/her become interested in the statistical issues and learn these concepts in a practical and concrete setting. And on the other hand, by reading about the statistical issues surrounding crime data, he/she gains a better appreciation for the complexities of crime statistics, eventually acquiring a deeper understanding of them. As a statistician myself, I learned interesting facts about the types of crime, their nomenclature and the possible confusion surrounding them, and how the data are collected and reported. Overall, I think the combination is effective and very well developed in this book." (Jean Opsomer, Westat) "This book is an excellent primer on handling the mass of data and information researchers are faced with. While it is geared toward followers of criminal justice information, much of the book is a very good introduction to survey techniques discussing their strong and weak points. Most importantly, there are very good guidelines and questions that one should employ before citing any data or using data for policy decisions or for reporting on data such as journalists do. The book is written in a non-technical manner and does a very good job of explaining the nuances in reviewing data. Any researcher who utilizes data would find this valuable. While it has specific examples in the criminal justice field, it really is quite useful for any user of data." (Barry Nussbaum, former President American Statistical Association)

Errors Blunders and Lies

Author: David Salsburg
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1138726982
Release Date: 2017-04-20

We live in a world that is not quite "right." The central tenet of statistical inquiry is that Observation = Truth + Errorbecause even the most careful of scientific investigations have always been bedeviled by uncertainty. Our attempts to measure things are plagued with small errors. Our attempts to understand our world are blocked by blunders. And, unfortunately, in some cases, people have been known to lie. In this long-awaited follow-up to his well-regarded bestseller, The Lady Tasting Tea, David Salsburg opens a door to the amazing widespread use of statistical methods by looking at historical examples of errors, blunders and lies from areas as diverse as archeology, law, economics, medicine, psychology, sociology, Biblical studies, history, and war-time espionage. In doing so, he shows how, upon closer statistical investigation, errors and blunders often lead to useful information. And how statistical methods have been used to uncover falsified data. Beginning with Edmund Halley's examination of the Transit of Venus and ending with a discussion of how many tanks Rommel had during the Second World War, the author invites the reader to come along on this easily accessible and fascinating journey of how to identify the nature of errors, minimize the effects of blunders, and figure out who the liars are.


Author: Wilhelm Winkler
Publisher: Duncker & Humblot
Release Date: 1969-01
Genre: Demography

Die gro en Fragen Mathematik

Author: Tony Crilly
Publisher: Springer-Verlag
ISBN: 9783827429186
Release Date: 2015-04-27
Genre: Mathematics

Die großen Fragen behandeln grundlegende Probleme und Konzepte in Wissenschaft und Philosophie, die Forscher und Denker seit jeher umtreiben. Anspruch der ambitionierten Reihe ist es, die Antworten auf diese Fragen zu präsentieren und damit die wichtigsten Gedanken der Menschheit in einzigartigen Übersichten zu bündeln. Im vorliegenden Band Mathematik, der einen Bogen spannt vom Beginn des Zählens und den idealen Platonischen Körpern bis zur Chaostheorie und dem Fermat’schen Theorem, setzt sich Tony Crilly mit jenen 20 Fragen auseinander, die das Herz der Mathematik und unseres Verständnisses der Welt bilden.

Die schwarze Macht

Author: Christoph Reuter
Publisher: DVA
ISBN: 9783641164102
Release Date: 2015-04-21
Genre: Social Science

Was den »Islamischen Staat« so gefährlich macht Nach seinem brutalen Eroberungszug im Jahr 2014 herrscht der »Islamische Staat« heute über mehr als fünf Millionen Menschen und eine Fläche von der Größe Großbritanniens. SPIEGEL-Korrespondent Christoph Reuter zeichnet den präzise geplanten Aufstieg der Dschihadisten nach und stößt zu den Wurzeln des Terrors vor – im zerfallenden Irak, im syrischen Bürgerkrieg und in den vielfältigen Konflikten der Region, die die Strategen des Terrors geschickt für ihre Zwecke zu nutzen wissen. IS, der »Islamische Staat«, ist weit mehr als die gefährlichste Terrorgruppe der Welt. Er ist eine Macht, die ein zuvor ungekanntes Maß an Perfektion zeigt – in seinem Handeln, seiner strategischen Planung, seinem vollkommen skrupellosen Wechsel von Allianzen und seiner präzise eingesetzten Propaganda. Der Glaube wird von den Dschihadisten zwar demonstrativ zur Schau getragen, ist für die Strategen des IS jedoch nur eines unter vielen Mitteln, ihre Macht zu erweitern. Christoph Reuter zeigt eindrucksvoll, wie der IS so große Gebiete in Syrien und im Irak erobern konnte und wer den Dschihadisten dabei in die Hände spielte. Sein Buch stützt sich auf bislang unbekannte Dokumente, vielfältige Kontakte und jahrelange Recherchen in der Region. Es bietet ungewohnte Einblicke in die Entstehung und Entwicklung des »Islamischen Staates« und macht vor allem eines deutlich: Wir sollten uns von der Propaganda des IS nicht täuschen lassen. Denn die Terrororganisation ist in vielem anders, als wir denken.

Pascal Fermat und die Berechnung des Gl cks

Author: Keith J. Devlin
Publisher: C.H.Beck
ISBN: 3406590993
Release Date: 2009
Genre: Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie - Geschichte

Der Autor stellt die Entstehung der Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung und den damit verbundenen Wandel des menschlichen Alltagslebens dar.

Die Berechnung der Zukunft

Author: Nate Silver
Publisher: Heyne Verlag
ISBN: 9783641112707
Release Date: 2013-09-02
Genre: Business & Economics

Zuverlässige Vorhersagen sind doch möglich! Nate Silver ist der heimliche Gewinner der amerikanischen Präsidentschaftswahlen 2012: ein begnadeter Statistiker, als »Prognose-Popstar« und »Wundernerd« weltberühmt geworden. Er hat die Wahlergebnisse aller 50 amerikanischen Bundesstaaten absolut exakt vorausgesagt – doch damit nicht genug: Jetzt zeigt Nate Silver, wie seine Prognosen in Zukunft Terroranschläge, Umweltkatastrophen und Finanzkrisen verhindern sollen. Gelingt ihm die Abschaffung des Zufalls? Warum werden Wettervorhersagen immer besser, während die Terrorattacken vom 11.09.2001 niemand kommen sah? Warum erkennen Ökonomen eine globale Finanzkrise nicht einmal dann, wenn diese bereits begonnen hat? Das Problem ist nicht der Mangel an Informationen, sondern dass wir die verfügbaren Daten nicht richtig deuten. Zuverlässige Prognosen aber würden uns helfen, Zufälle und Ungewissheiten abzuwehren und unser Schicksal selbst zu bestimmen. Nate Silver zeigt, dass und wie das geht. Erstmals wendet er seine Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung nicht nur auf Wahlprognosen an, sondern auf die großen Probleme unserer Zeit: die Finanzmärkte, Ratingagenturen, Epidemien, Erdbeben, den Klimawandel, den Terrorismus. In all diesen Fällen gibt es zahlreiche Prognosen von Experten, die er überprüft – und erklärt, warum sie meist falsch sind. Gleichzeitig schildert er, wie es gelingen kann, im Rauschen der Daten die wesentlichen Informationen herauszufiltern. Ein unterhaltsamer und spannender Augenöffner!

Maria Lassnig

Author: Museum des 20. Jahrhunderts (Austria)
ISBN: UOM:39015010996372
Release Date: 1985
Genre: Art

Mann und Maschine

Author: Tanja Paulitz
Publisher: transcript Verlag
ISBN: 9783839418048
Release Date: 2014-03-31
Genre: Technology & Engineering

Die Herausbildung der modernen Technikwissenschaften vollzog sich nicht zuletzt auch als ein Diskurs über Männlichkeiten. Dass dieser weitaus brüchiger verlief als gemeinhin angenommen, macht dieses Buch deutlich. In ihrer wissenssoziologischen Analyse rekonstruiert Tanja Paulitz unterschiedliche diskursive Praktiken der Vergeschlechtlichung: Diese pendeln zwischen der Neutralisierung des Ingenieurs als »Vernunftwesen« und der Naturalisierung ursprünglich männlicher Produktivität. Entworfen wird einmal der rationale Maschinenwissenschaftler, ein andermal der begabte Mann der Tat - Männlichkeitsbilder, von denen auch das genuine Grundlagenwissen der Technik, wie die technische Mechanik und die Maschinentheorie, nicht unberührt geblieben sind.