Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21st Century

Author: William C. Potter
Publisher: Stanford Security Studies
ISBN: 0804769702
Release Date: 2010
Genre: Political Science

This two-volume set is the output from an extensive research project focused on developing the first forecasting model for nuclear proliferation. The Case Study volume (Volume 2) addresses a set of overarching questions regarding the propensity of selected states from different regions of the world to "go nuclear," the sources of national decisions to do so.

On Limited Nuclear War in the 21st Century

Author: Jeffrey A. Larsen
Publisher: Stanford University Press
ISBN: 9780804790918
Release Date: 2014-04-02
Genre: Political Science

The last two decades have seen a slow but steady increase in nuclear armed states, and in the seemingly less constrained policy goals of some of the newer "rogue" states in the international system. The authors ofOn Limited Nuclear War in the 21st Century argue that a time may come when one of these states makes the conscious decision that using a nuclear weapon against the United States, its allies, or forward deployed forces in the context of a crisis or a regional conventional conflict may be in its interests. They assert that we are unprepared for these types of limited nuclear wars and that it is urgent we rethink the theory, policy, and implementation of force related to our approaches to this type of engagement. Together they critique Cold War doctrine on limited nuclear war and consider a number of the key concepts that should govern our approach to limited nuclear conflict in the future. These include identifying the factors likely to lead to limited nuclear war, examining the geopolitics of future conflict scenarios that might lead to small-scale nuclear use, and assessing strategies for crisis management and escalation control. Finally, they consider a range of strategies and operational concepts for countering, controlling, or containing limited nuclear war.

The Ethics of Nuclear Weapons Dissemination

Author: Thomas E. Doyle, II
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 9781136229497
Release Date: 2015-02-11
Genre: Political Science

This book examines the moral dilemmas of nuclear dissemination, and the justifications of both nuclear pursuit and avoidance by contemporary states. Applying Constructivist methodologies and moral theory, the author analyses a core set of moral dilemmas that ensnare decision-makers amongst state and non-state nuclear aspirants, as well as amongst states committed to preventing horizontal proliferation. The book shows that the character, structure and implications of these dilemmas have not yet been adequately understood or appreciated, and that such an understanding is necessary for an effective set of nonproliferation policies. Furthermore, it shows that the dilemmas’ force and political policy import are evident in the 'discourses' that diverse actors undertake to defend their nuclear choices, and how the dilemmas of nuclear aspirants are implicated in those of nuclear preventers. The author advocates a number of policy recommendations that reinforce some already made by scholars and experts but, more importantly, others that advise significantly different courses of action. The book reveals how the moral dilemmas of nuclear aspiration, avoidance, and prevention constitute the security dilemmas and paradoxes that comprise much of the 21st century security environment. This book will be of much interest to students of nuclear proliferation, international relations, ethics, and international security studies.

Nuclear Politics

Author: Alexandre Debs
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9781108107730
Release Date: 2016-12-15
Genre: Political Science

When do states acquire nuclear weapons? Overturning a decade of scholarship focusing on other factors, Debs and Monteiro show in Nuclear Politics that proliferation is driven by security concerns. Proliferation occurs only when a state has both the willingness and opportunity to build the bomb. A state has the willingness to nuclearize when it faces a serious security threat without the support of a reliable ally. It has the opportunity when its conventional forces or allied protection are sufficient to deter preventive attacks. This explains why so few countries have developed nuclear weapons. Unthreatened or protected states do not want them; weak and unprotected ones cannot get them. This powerful theory combined with extensive historical research on the nuclear trajectory of sixteen countries will make Nuclear Politics a standard reference in international security studies, informing scholarly and policy debates on nuclear proliferation - and US non-proliferation efforts - for decades to come.

Nuclear Exits

Author: Ilkka Taipale
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 9781317481720
Release Date: 2017-12-22
Genre: History

Many countries have the capacity to construct nuclear weapons - even relatively poor and small ones, as the North Korean example shows us. So far, only one country - South Africa – has voluntarily given up its nuclear weapons programme. Three others - Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belarus - gave up the Soviet Union’s nuclear weapons after the end of the Cold War. A number of others (including Australia, Sweden and Switzerland) have at one time or another made plans to build nuclear weapons, but eventually opted not to do so. These stories can shed significant light on the prospects for nuclear disarmament – one of the biggest global challenges of our time. Yet they have received little scrutiny in the academic literature to date. This volume addresses that gap, bringing together scholars, practitioners and politicians to reflect on the history of nuclear exits (and nuclear non-entries) and to draw out some key lessons for future nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation efforts. Although progress on reducing nuclear arsenals has been frustratingly slow, there are strong indications that world opinion is increasingly supportive of nuclear exits. Organizations such as International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War, the International Committee of the Red Cross and the World Medical Association have all taken a strong stand against nuclear weapons. Ultimately ridding the world of nuclear weapons requires politicians to take determined action – to decide in favour of nuclear exits. The chapters in this volume show that such decisions are possible and that a worldwide nuclear exit is achievable – within our lifetimes. This book was published as a special issue of Medicine, Conflict and Survival.

Forecasting Nuclear Proliferation in the 21st Century

Author: William C. Potter
Publisher: Stanford Security Studies
ISBN: 0804769737
Release Date: 2010
Genre: Political Science

This two-volume set is the output from an extensive research project focused on developing the first forecasting model for nuclear proliferation. The Theory volume consists of an introduction and nine additional chapters devoted to key theoretical issues regarding the dynamics of nuclear weapons (non) proliferation.

A Perpetual Menace

Author: William Walker
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 9781136594632
Release Date: 2011-10-31
Genre: Political Science

Written by a leading scholar in the field of nuclear weapons and international relations, this book examines ‘the problem of order’ arising from the existence of weapons of mass destruction. This central problem of international order has its origins in the nineteenth century, when industrialization and the emergence of new sciences, technologies and administrative capabilities greatly expanded states’ abilities to inflict injury, ushering in the era of total war. It became acute in the mid-twentieth century, with the invention of the atomic bomb and the pre-eminent role ascribed to nuclear weapons during the Cold War. It became more complex after the end of the Cold War, as power structures shifted, new insecurities emerged, prior ordering strategies were called into question, and as technologies relevant to weapons of mass destruction became more accessible to non-state actors as well as states. William Walker explores how this problem is conceived by influential actors, how they have tried to fashion solutions in the face of many predicaments, and why those solutions have been deemed effective and ineffective, legitimate and illegitimate, in various times and contexts.

Confronting the Bomb

Author: Lawrence S. Wittner
Publisher: Stanford University Press
ISBN: 9780804771245
Release Date: 2009-05-12
Genre: History

Confronting the Bomb tells the dramatic, inspiring story of how citizen activism helped curb the nuclear arms race and prevent nuclear war. This abbreviated version of Lawrence Wittner's award-winning trilogy, The Struggle Against the Bomb, shows how a worldwide, grassroots campaign—the largest social movement of modern times—challenged the nuclear priorities of the great powers and, ultimately, thwarted their nuclear ambitions. Based on massive research in the files of peace and disarmament organizations and in formerly top secret government records, extensive interviews with antinuclear activists and government officials, and memoirs and other published materials, Confronting the Bomb opens a unique window on one of the most important issues of the modern era: survival in the nuclear age. It covers the entire period of significant opposition to the bomb, from the final stages of the Second World War up to the present. Along the way, it provides fascinating glimpses of the interaction of key nuclear disarmament activists and policymakers, including Albert Einstein, Harry Truman, Albert Schweitzer, Norman Cousins, Nikita Khrushchev, Bertrand Russell, Andrei Sakharov, Linus Pauling, Dwight Eisenhower, Harold Macmillan, John F. Kennedy, Randy Forsberg, Mikhail Gorbachev, Helen Caldicott, E.P. Thompson, and Ronald Reagan. Overall, however, it is a story of popular mobilization and its effectiveness.

Nuclear Disarmament and Non Proliferation

Author: Sverre Lodgaard
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 9781136906770
Release Date: 2010-10-18
Genre: History

A PDF version of this book is available for free in open access via www.tandfebooks.com as well as the OAPEN Library platform, www.oapen.org. It has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 3.0 license and is part of the OAPEN-UK research project. This book examines the current debate on nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament, notably the international non-proliferation regime and how to implement its disarmament provisions. Discussing the requirements of a new international consensus on nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation, this book builds on the three pillars of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT): non-proliferation, disarmament and peaceful uses of nuclear energy. It reviews the impact of Cold War and post-Cold War policies on current disarmament initiatives and analyses contemporary proliferation problems: how to deal with the states that never joined the NPT (India, Pakistan and Israel); how states that have been moving toward nuclear weapons have been brought back to non-nuclear-weapon status; and, in particular, how to deal with Iran and North Korea. The analysis centres on the relationship between disarmament and non-proliferation in an increasingly multi-centric world involving China and India as well as the US, the European powers and Russia. It concludes with a description and discussion of three different worlds without nuclear weapons and their implications for nuclear disarmament policies. This book will be of great interest to all students of arms control, strategic studies, war and conflict studies, and IR/security studies in general Sverre Lodgaard is a Senior Research Fellow at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, Oslo

America s Global Advantage

Author: Carla Norrlof
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9781139486804
Release Date: 2010-04-29
Genre: Political Science

For over sixty years the United States has been the largest economy and most powerful country in the world. However, there is growing speculation that this era of hegemony is under threat as it faces huge trade deficits, a weaker currency, and stretched military resources. America's Global Advantage argues that, despite these difficulties, the US will maintain its privileged position. In this original and important contribution to a central subject in International Relations, Carla Norrlof challenges the prevailing wisdom that other states benefit more from US hegemony than the United States itself. By analysing America's structural advantages in trade, money, and security, and the ways in which these advantages reinforce one another, Norrlof shows how and why America benefits from being the dominant power in the world. Contrary to predictions of American decline, she argues that American hegemony will endure for the foreseeable future.

Contesting the Future of Nuclear Power

Author: Benjamin K Sovacool
Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Company
ISBN: 9789813107977
Release Date: 2011-05-05
Genre: Science

This book provides a concise but rigorous appraisal about the future of nuclear power and the presumed nuclear renaissance. It does so by assessing the technical, economic, environmental, political, and social risks related to all aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle, from uranium mills and mines to nuclear reactors and spent fuel storage facilities. In each case, the book argues that the costs of nuclear power significantly outweigh its benefits. It concludes by calling for investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency as a better path towards an affordable, secure, and socially acceptable future. The prospect of a global nuclear renaissance could change the way that energy is produced and used the world over. Sovacool takes a hard look at who would benefit — mostly energy companies and manufacturers — and who would suffer — mostly taxpayers, those living near nuclear facilities, and electricity customers. This book is a must-read for anyone even remotely concerned about a sustainable energy future, and also for those with a specific interest in modern nuclear power plants.

21st Century Technologies Promises and Perils of a Dynamic Future

Author: OECD
Publisher: OECD Publishing
ISBN: 9789264163539
Release Date: 1998-09-25
Genre:

This book reviews the extraordinary promise of technological advances over the next twenty years or so, and assesses some of the key issues -- economic, social, environmental, ethical -- that decision-makers in government, business and society will face in the decades ahead.

Making Twenty First Century Strategy

Author: Dennis M. Drew
Publisher: www.Militarybookshop.CompanyUK
ISBN: 1907521542
Release Date: 2010-05
Genre: Political Science

This new work defines national security strategy, its objectives, the problems it confronts, and the influences that constrain and facilitate its development and implementation in a post-Cold War, post-9/11 environment. The authors note that making and implementing national strategy centers on risk management and present a model for assessing strategic risks and the process for allocating limited resources to reduce them. The major threats facing the United States now come from its unique status as "the sole remaining superpower" against which no nation-state or other entity can hope to compete through conventional means. The alternative is what is now called asymmetrical or fourth generation warfare. Drew and Snow discuss all these factors in detail and bring them together by examining the continuing problems of making strategy in a changed and changing world. Originally published in 2006.

Nuclear Proliferation and International Security

Author: Morten Bremer Mærli
Publisher: Psychology Press
ISBN: 9780415420471
Release Date: 2007
Genre: Political Science

Nuclear weapons remain an essential part of the security policies of leading states. This volume assesses contemporary efforts to stem nuclear proliferation with a view to recommending better non-proliferation tools and strategies. It is of interest to students of nuclear proliferation, arms control, and international security in general.

Cold War Statesmen Confront the Bomb

Author: John Lewis Gaddis
Publisher: Oxford University Press on Demand
ISBN: 0198294689
Release Date: 1999
Genre: History

Cold War Statesmen Confront the Bomb: Nuclear Diplomacy Since 1945 is a path-breaking work that uses biographical techniques to test one of the most important and widely debated questions in international politics: Did the advent of the nuclear bomb prevent the Third World War? Many scholars and much conventional wisdom assumes that nuclear deterrence has prevented major power war since the end of the Second World War; this remains a principal tenet of US strategic policy today. Others challenge this assumption, and argue that major war would have been `obsolete' even without the bomb. This book tests these propositions by examining the careers of ten leading Cold War statesmen--Harry S Truman; John Foster Dulles; Dwight D. Eisenhower; John F. Kennedy; Josef Stalin; Nikita Krushchev; Mao Zedong; Winston Churchill; Charles De Gaulle; and Konrad Adenauer--and asking whether they viewed war, and its acceptability, differently after the advent of the bomb. The book'sauthors argue almost unanimously that nuclear weapons did have a significant effect on the thinking of these leading statesmen of the nuclear age, but a dissenting epilogue from John Mueller challenges this thesis.