Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

Author: Douglas C. Montgomery
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9781118745151
Release Date: 2015-04-21
Genre: Mathematics

Praise for the First Edition "…[t]he book is great for readers who need to applythe methods and models presented but have little background inmathematics and statistics." -MAA Reviews Thoroughly updated throughout, Introduction to Time SeriesAnalysis and Forecasting, Second Edition presents theunderlying theories of time series analysis that are needed toanalyze time-oriented data and construct real-world short- tomedium-term statistical forecasts. Authored by highly-experienced academics and professionals inengineering statistics, the Second Edition featuresdiscussions on both popular and modern time series methodologies aswell as an introduction to Bayesian methods in forecasting.Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, SecondEdition also includes: Over 300 exercises from diverse disciplines including healthcare, environmental studies, engineering, and finance More than 50 programming algorithms using JMP®, SAS®,and R that illustrate the theory and practicality of forecastingtechniques in the context of time-oriented data New material on frequency domain and spatial temporaldata analysis Expanded coverage of the variogram and spectrum withapplications as well as transfer and intervention modelfunctions A supplementary website featuring PowerPoint®slides, data sets, and select solutions to the problems Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, SecondEdition is an ideal textbook upper-undergraduate andgraduate-levels courses in forecasting and time series. The book isalso an excellent reference for practitioners and researchers whoneed to model and analyze time series data to generate forecasts.

Time Series Analysis and Forecasting by Example

Author: Søren Bisgaard
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118056957
Release Date: 2011-08-24
Genre: Mathematics

An intuition-based approach enables you to master time series analysis with ease Time Series Analysis and Forecasting by Example provides the fundamental techniques in time series analysis using various examples. By introducing necessary theory through examples that showcase the discussed topics, the authors successfully help readers develop an intuitive understanding of seemingly complicated time series models and their implications. The book presents methodologies for time series analysis in a simplified, example-based approach. Using graphics, the authors discuss each presented example in detail and explain the relevant theory while also focusing on the interpretation of results in data analysis. Following a discussion of why autocorrelation is often observed when data is collected in time, subsequent chapters explore related topics, including: Graphical tools in time series analysis Procedures for developing stationary, non-stationary, and seasonal models How to choose the best time series model Constant term and cancellation of terms in ARIMA models Forecasting using transfer function-noise models The final chapter is dedicated to key topics such as spurious relationships, autocorrelation in regression, and multiple time series. Throughout the book, real-world examples illustrate step-by-step procedures and instructions using statistical software packages such as SAS®, JMP, Minitab, SCA, and R. A related Web site features PowerPoint slides to accompany each chapter as well as the book's data sets. With its extensive use of graphics and examples to explain key concepts, Time Series Analysis and Forecasting by Example is an excellent book for courses on time series analysis at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. it also serves as a valuable resource for practitioners and researchers who carry out data and time series analysis in the fields of engineering, business, and economics.

Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting Solutions Manual

Author: Douglas C. Montgomery
Publisher: Wiley
ISBN: 0470435747
Release Date: 2009-03-23
Genre: Mathematics

An accessible introduction to the most current thinking in and practicality of forecasting techniques in the context of time-oriented data. Analyzing time-oriented data and forecasting are among the most important problems that analysts face across many fields, ranging from finance and economics to production operations and the natural sciences. As a result, there is a widespread need for large groups of people in a variety of fields to understand the basic concepts of time series analysis and forecasting. Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting presents the time series analysis branch of applied statistics as the underlying methodology for developing practical forecasts, and it also bridges the gap between theory and practice by equipping readers with the tools needed to analyze time-oriented data and construct useful, short- to medium-term, statistically based forecasts. Seven easy-to-follow chapters provide intuitive explanations and in-depth coverage of key forecasting topics, including: Regression-based methods, heuristic smoothing methods, and general time series models Basic statistical tools used in analyzing time series data Metrics for evaluating forecast errors and methods for evaluating and tracking forecasting performance over time Cross-section and time series regression data, least squares and maximum likelihood model fitting, model adequacy checking, prediction intervals, and weighted and generalized least squares Exponential smoothing techniques for time series with polynomial components and seasonal data Forecasting and prediction interval construction with a discussion on transfer function models as well as intervention modeling and analysis Multivariate time series problems, ARCH and GARCH models, and combinations of forecasts The ARIMA model approach with a discussion on how to identify and fit these models for non-seasonal and seasonal time series The intricate role of computer software in successful time series analysis is acknowledged with the use of Minitab, JMP, and SAS software applications, which illustrate how the methods are imple-mented in practice. An extensive FTP site is available for readers to obtain data sets, Microsoft Office PowerPoint slides, and selected answers to problems in the book. Requiring only a basic working knowledge of statistics and complete with exercises at the end of each chapter as well as examples from a wide array of fields, Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting is an ideal text for forecasting and time series courses at the advanced undergraduate and beginning graduate levels. The book also serves as an indispensable reference for practitioners in business, economics, engineering, statistics, mathematics, and the social, environmental, and life sciences.

Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting Solutions Set

Author: Douglas C. Montgomery
Publisher: Wiley
ISBN: 0470501472
Release Date: 2009-03-16
Genre: Mathematics

This set contains Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting text ISBN 978-0-471-65397-4 and Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Solutions Manual ISBN 978-0-470-43574-8.

Zeitreihenmodelle

Author: Andrew C. Harvey
Publisher: De Gruyter Oldenbourg
ISBN: 3486230069
Release Date: 1995
Genre:

Gegenstand des Werkes sind Analyse und Modellierung von Zeitreihen. Es wendet sich an Studierende und Praktiker aller Disziplinen, in denen Zeitreihenbeobachtungen wichtig sind.

Statistical Methods for Forecasting

Author: Bovas Abraham
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9780470317297
Release Date: 2009-09-25
Genre: Mathematics

The Wiley-Interscience Paperback Series consists of selected books that have been made more accessible to consumers in an effort to increase global appeal and general circulation. With these new unabridged softcover volumes, Wiley hopes to extend the lives of these works by making them available to future generations of statisticians, mathematicians, and scientists. "This book, it must be said, lives up to the words on its advertising cover: 'Bridging the gap between introductory, descriptive approaches and highly advanced theoretical treatises, it provides a practical, intermediate level discussion of a variety of forecasting tools, and explains how they relate to one another, both in theory and practice.' It does just that!" -Journal of the Royal Statistical Society "A well-written work that deals with statistical methods and models that can be used to produce short-term forecasts, this book has wide-ranging applications. It could be used in the context of a study of regression, forecasting, and time series analysis by PhD students; or to support a concentration in quantitative methods for MBA students; or as a work in applied statistics for advanced undergraduates." -Choice Statistical Methods for Forecasting is a comprehensive, readable treatment of statistical methods and models used to produce short-term forecasts. The interconnections between the forecasting models and methods are thoroughly explained, and the gap between theory and practice is successfully bridged. Special topics are discussed, such as transfer function modeling; Kalman filtering; state space models; Bayesian forecasting; and methods for forecast evaluation, comparison, and control. The book provides time series, autocorrelation, and partial autocorrelation plots, as well as examples and exercises using real data. Statistical Methods for Forecasting serves as an outstanding textbook for advanced undergraduate and graduate courses in statistics, business, engineering, and the social sciences, as well as a working reference for professionals in business, industry, and government.

Time Series Analysis

Author: Wilfredo Palma
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9781118634325
Release Date: 2016-03-07
Genre: Mathematics

A modern and accessible guide to the analysis of introductory time series data Featuring an organized and self-contained guide, Time Series Analysis provides a broad introduction to the most fundamental methodologies and techniques of time series analysis. The book focuses on the treatment of univariate time series by illustrating a number of well-known models such as ARMA and ARIMA. Providing contemporary coverage, the book features several useful and newly-developed techniques such as weak and strong dependence, Bayesian methods, non-Gaussian data, local stationarity, missing values and outliers, and threshold models. Time Series Analysis includes practical applications of time series methods throughout, as well as: Real-world examples and exercise sets that allow readers to practice the presented methods and techniques Numerous detailed analyses of computational aspects related to the implementation of methodologies including algorithm efficiency, arithmetic complexity, and process time End-of-chapter proposed problems and bibliographical notes to deepen readers’ knowledge of the presented material Appendices that contain details on fundamental concepts and select solutions of the problems implemented throughout A companion website with additional data files and computer codes Time Series Analysis is an excellent textbook for undergraduate and beginning graduate-level courses in time series as well as a supplement for students in advanced statistics, mathematics, economics, finance, engineering, and physics. The book is also a useful reference for researchers and practitioners in time series analysis, econometrics, and finance. Wilfredo Palma, PhD, is Professor of Statistics in the Department of Statistics at Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Dr. Palma has published several refereed articles and has received over a dozen academic honors and awards. His research interests include time series analysis, prediction theory, state space systems, linear models, and econometrics. He is the author of Long-Memory Time Series: Theory and Methods, also published by Wiley.

Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung und Statistik

Author: Robert Hafner
Publisher: Springer-Verlag
ISBN: 9783709169445
Release Date: 2013-03-11
Genre: Mathematics

Das Buch ist eine Einführung in die Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung und mathematische Statistik auf mittlerem mathematischen Niveau. Die Pädagogik der Darstellung unterscheidet sich in wesentlichen Teilen – Einführung der Modelle für unabhängige und abhängige Experimente, Darstellung des Suffizienzbegriffes, Ausführung des Zusammenhanges zwischen Testtheorie und Theorie der Bereichschätzung, allgemeine Diskussion der Modellentwicklung – erheblich von der anderer vergleichbarer Lehrbücher. Die Darstellung ist, soweit auf diesem Niveau möglich, mathematisch exakt, verzichtet aber bewußt und ebenfalls im Gegensatz zu vergleichbaren Texten auf die Erörterung von Meßbarkeitsfragen. Der Leser wird dadurch erheblich entlastet, ohne daß wesentliche Substanz verlorengeht. Das Buch will allen, die an der Anwendung der Statistik auf solider Grundlage interessiert sind, eine Einführung bieten, und richtet sich an Studierende und Dozenten aller Studienrichtungen, für die mathematische Statistik ein Werkzeug ist.

Multivariate Time Series Analysis

Author: Ruey S. Tsay
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9781118617755
Release Date: 2013-11-11
Genre: Mathematics

An accessible guide to the multivariate time series toolsused in numerous real-world applications Multivariate Time Series Analysis: With R and FinancialApplications is the much anticipated sequel coming from one ofthe most influential and prominent experts on the topic of timeseries. Through a fundamental balance of theory and methodology,the book supplies readers with a comprehensible approach tofinancial econometric models and their applications to real-worldempirical research. Differing from the traditional approach to multivariate timeseries, the book focuses on reader comprehension by emphasizingstructural specification, which results in simplified parsimoniousVAR MA modeling. Multivariate Time Series Analysis: With R andFinancial Applications utilizes the freely available Rsoftware package to explore complex data and illustrate relatedcomputation and analyses. Featuring the techniques and methodologyof multivariate linear time series, stationary VAR models, VAR MAtime series and models, unitroot process, factor models, andfactor-augmented VAR models, the book includes: • Over 300 examples and exercises to reinforce thepresented content • User-friendly R subroutines and research presentedthroughout to demonstrate modern applications • Numerous datasets and subroutines to provide readerswith a deeper understanding of the material Multivariate Time Series Analysis is an ideal textbookfor graduate-level courses on time series and quantitative financeand upper-undergraduate level statistics courses in time series.The book is also an indispensable reference for researchers andpractitioners in business, finance, and econometrics.

Introduction to Linear Regression Analysis

Author: Douglas C. Montgomery
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9781119180173
Release Date: 2015-06-29
Genre: Mathematics

Praise for the Fourth Edition "As with previous editions, the authors have produced a leadingtextbook on regression." —Journal of the American Statistical Association A comprehensive and up-to-date introduction to thefundamentals of regression analysis Introduction to Linear Regression Analysis, Fifth Editioncontinues to present both the conventional and less common uses oflinear regression in today’s cutting-edge scientificresearch. The authors blend both theory and application to equipreaders with an understanding of the basic principles needed toapply regression model-building techniques in various fields ofstudy, including engineering, management, and the healthsciences. Following a general introduction to regression modeling,including typical applications, a host of technical tools areoutlined such as basic inference procedures, introductory aspectsof model adequacy checking, and polynomial regression models andtheir variations. The book then discusses how transformations andweighted least squares can be used to resolve problems of modelinadequacy and also how to deal with influential observations. TheFifth Edition features numerous newly added topics,including: A chapter on regression analysis of time series data thatpresents the Durbin-Watson test and other techniques for detectingautocorrelation as well as parameter estimation in time seriesregression models Regression models with random effects in addition to adiscussion on subsampling and the importance of the mixedmodel Tests on individual regression coefficients and subsets ofcoefficients Examples of current uses of simple linear regression models andthe use of multiple regression models for understanding patientsatisfaction data. In addition to Minitab, SAS, and S-PLUS, the authors haveincorporated JMP and the freely available R software to illustratethe discussed techniques and procedures in this new edition.Numerous exercises have been added throughout, allowing readers totest their understanding of the material. Introduction to Linear Regression Analysis, Fifth Editionis an excellent book for statistics and engineering courses onregression at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. The bookalso serves as a valuable, robust resource for professionals in thefields of engineering, life and biological sciences, and the socialsciences.

Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting

Author: Peter J. Brockwell
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 9783319298542
Release Date: 2016-08-19
Genre: Mathematics

This book is aimed at the reader who wishes to gain a working knowledge of time series and forecasting methods as applied to economics, engineering and the natural and social sciences. It assumes knowledge only of basic calculus, matrix algebra and elementary statistics. This third edition contains detailed instructions for the use of the professional version of the Windows-based computer package ITSM2000, now available as a free download from the Springer Extras website. The logic and tools of time series model-building are developed in detail. Numerous exercises are included and the software can be used to analyze and forecast data sets of the user's own choosing. The book can also be used in conjunction with other time series packages such as those included in R. The programs in ITSM2000 however are menu-driven and can be used with minimal investment of time in the computational details. The core of the book covers stationary processes, ARMA and ARIMA processes, multivariate time series and state-space models, with an optional chapter on spectral analysis. Many additional special topics are also covered. New to this edition: A chapter devoted to Financial Time Series Introductions to Brownian motion, Lévy processes and Itô calculus An expanded section on continuous-time ARMA processes

Analysis of Financial Time Series

Author: Ruey S. Tsay
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118017099
Release Date: 2010-10-26
Genre: Mathematics

This book provides a broad, mature, and systematic introduction to current financial econometric models and their applications to modeling and prediction of financial time series data. It utilizes real-world examples and real financial data throughout the book to apply the models and methods described. The author begins with basic characteristics of financial time series data before covering three main topics: Analysis and application of univariate financial time series The return series of multiple assets Bayesian inference in finance methods Key features of the new edition include additional coverage of modern day topics such as arbitrage, pair trading, realized volatility, and credit risk modeling; a smooth transition from S-Plus to R; and expanded empirical financial data sets. The overall objective of the book is to provide some knowledge of financial time series, introduce some statistical tools useful for analyzing these series and gain experience in financial applications of various econometric methods.

An Introduction to Analysis of Financial Data with R

Author: Ruey S. Tsay
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9781119013464
Release Date: 2014-08-21
Genre: Business & Economics

A complete set of statistical tools for beginning financial analysts from a leading authority Written by one of the leading experts on the topic, An Introduction to Analysis of Financial Data with R explores basic concepts of visualization of financial data. Through a fundamental balance between theory and applications, the book supplies readers with an accessible approach to financial econometric models and their applications to real-world empirical research. The author supplies a hands-on introduction to the analysis of financial data using the freely available R software package and case studies to illustrate actual implementations of the discussed methods. The book begins with the basics of financial data, discussing their summary statistics and related visualization methods. Subsequent chapters explore basic time series analysis and simple econometric models for business, finance, and economics as well as related topics including: Linear time series analysis, with coverage of exponential smoothing for forecasting and methods for model comparison Different approaches to calculating asset volatility and various volatility models High-frequency financial data and simple models for price changes, trading intensity, and realized volatility Quantitative methods for risk management, including value at risk and conditional value at risk Econometric and statistical methods for risk assessment based on extreme value theory and quantile regression Throughout the book, the visual nature of the topic is showcased through graphical representations in R, and two detailed case studies demonstrate the relevance of statistics in finance. A related website features additional data sets and R scripts so readers can create their own simulations and test their comprehension of the presented techniques. An Introduction to Analysis of Financial Data with R is an excellent book for introductory courses on time series and business statistics at the upper-undergraduate and graduate level. The book is also an excellent resource for researchers and practitioners in the fields of business, finance, and economics who would like to enhance their understanding of financial data and today's financial markets.

Time Series Analysis

Author: George E. P. Box
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9781118674925
Release Date: 2015-05-29
Genre: Mathematics

Praise for the Fourth Edition "The book follows faithfully the style of the original edition. The approach is heavily motivated by real-world time series, and by developing a complete approach to model building, estimation, forecasting and control." —Mathematical Reviews Bridging classical models and modern topics, the Fifth Edition of Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control maintains a balanced presentation of the tools for modeling and analyzing time series. Also describing the latest developments that have occurred in the field over the past decade through applications from areas such as business, finance, and engineering, the Fifth Edition continues to serve as one of the most influential and prominent works on the subject. Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, Fifth Edition provides a clearly written exploration of the key methods for building, classifying, testing, and analyzing stochastic models for time series and describes their use in five important areas of application: forecasting; determining the transfer function of a system; modeling the effects of intervention events; developing multivariate dynamic models; and designing simple control schemes. Along with these classical uses, the new edition covers modern topics with new features that include: A redesigned chapter on multivariate time series analysis with an expanded treatment of Vector Autoregressive, or VAR models, along with a discussion of the analytical tools needed for modeling vector time series An expanded chapter on special topics covering unit root testing, time-varying volatility models such as ARCH and GARCH, nonlinear time series models, and long memory models Numerous examples drawn from finance, economics, engineering, and other related fields The use of the publicly available R software for graphical illustrations and numerical calculations along with scripts that demonstrate the use of R for model building and forecasting Updates to literature references throughout and new end-of-chapter exercises Streamlined chapter introductions and revisions that update and enhance the exposition Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, Fifth Edition is a valuable real-world reference for researchers and practitioners in time series analysis, econometrics, finance, and related fields. The book is also an excellent textbook for beginning graduate-level courses in advanced statistics, mathematics, economics, finance, engineering, and physics.