More Predictive Analytics

Author: Conrad Carlberg
Publisher: Que Publishing
ISBN: 9780134070933
Release Date: 2015-08-18
Genre: Computers

Accurate, practical Excel predictive analysis: powerful smoothing techniques for serious data crunchers! In More Predictive Analytics, Microsoft Excel® MVP Conrad Carlberg shows how to use intuitive smoothing techniques to make remarkably accurate predictions. You won’t have to write a line of code--all you need is Excel and this all-new, crystal-clear tutorial. Carlberg goes beyond his highly-praised Predictive Analytics, introducing proven methods for creating more specific, actionable forecasts. You’ll learn how to predict what customers will spend on a given product next year… project how many patients your hospital will admit next quarter… tease out the effects of seasonality (or patterns that recur over a day, year, or any other period)… distinguish real trends from mere “noise.” Drawing on more than 20 years of experience, Carlberg helps you master powerful techniques such as autocorrelation, differencing, Holt-Winters, backcasting, polynomial regression, exponential smoothing, and multiplicative modeling. Step by step, you’ll learn how to make the most of built-in Excel tools to gain far deeper insights from your data. To help you get better results faster, Carlberg provides downloadable Excel workbooks you can easily adapt for your own projects. If you’re ready to make better forecasts for better decision-making, you’re ready for More Predictive Analytics. Discover when and how to use smoothing instead of regression Test your data for trends and seasonality Compare sets of observations with the autocorrelation function Analyze trended time series with Excel’s Solver and Analysis ToolPak Use Holt's linear exponential smoothing to forecast the next level and trend, and extend forecasts further into the future Initialize your forecasts with a solid baseline Improve your initial forecasts with backcasting and optimization Fully reflect simple or complex seasonal patterns in your forecasts Account for sudden, unexpected changes in trends, from fads to new viral infections Use range names to control complex forecasting models more easily Compare additive and multiplicative models, and use the right model for each task

Predictive Analytics

Author: Conrad Carlberg
Publisher: Que Publishing
ISBN: 9780132967259
Release Date: 2012-07-02
Genre: Business & Economics

Excel predictive analytics for serious data crunchers! The movie Moneyball made predictive analytics famous: Now you can apply the same techniques to help your business win. You don’t need multimillion-dollar software: All the tools you need are available in Microsoft Excel, and all the knowledge and skills are right here, in this book! Microsoft Excel MVP Conrad Carlberg shows you how to use Excel predictive analytics to solve real-world problems in areas ranging from sales and marketing to operations. Carlberg offers unprecedented insight into building powerful, credible, and reliable forecasts, showing how to gain deep insights from Excel that would be difficult to uncover with costly tools such as SAS or SPSS. You’ll get an extensive collection of downloadable Excel workbooks you can easily adapt to your own unique requirements, plus VBA code—much of it open-source—to streamline several of this book’s most complex techniques. Step by step, you’ll build on Excel skills you already have, learning advanced techniques that can help you increase revenue, reduce costs, and improve productivity. By mastering predictive analytics, you’ll gain a powerful competitive advantage for your company and yourself. • Learn both the “how” and “why” of using data to make better tactical decisions • Choose the right analytics technique for each problem • Use Excel to capture live real-time data from diverse sources, including third-party websites • Use logistic regression to predict behaviors such as “will buy” versus “won’t buy” • Distinguish random data bounces from real, fundamental changes • Forecast time series with smoothing and regression • Construct more accurate predictions by using Solver to find maximum likelihood estimates • Manage huge numbers of variables and enormous datasets with principal components analysis and Varimax factor rotation • Apply ARIMA (Box-Jenkins) techniques to build better forecasts and understand their meaning

Decision Analytics

Author: Conrad George Carlberg
Publisher: Que Publishing
ISBN: 9780789751683
Release Date: 2013
Genre: Business & Economics

Crunch Big Data to optimize marketing and more! Overwhelmed by all the Big Data now available to you? Not sure what questions to ask or how to ask them? Using Microsoft Excel and proven decision analytics techniques, you can distill all that data into manageable sets--and use them to optimize a wide variety of business and investment decisions. In Decision Analytics: Microsoft Excel, best selling statistics expert and consultant Conrad Carlberg will show you how--hands-on and step-by-step. Carlberg guides you through using decision analytics to segment customers (or anything else) into sensible and actionable groups and clusters. Next, you'll learn practical ways to optimize a wide spectrum of decisions in business and beyond--from pricing to cross-selling, hiring to investments--even facial recognition software uses the techniques discussed in this book! Through realistic examples, Carlberg helps you understand the techniques and assumptions that underlie decision analytics and use simple Excel charts to intuitively grasp the results. With this foundation in place, you can perform your own analyses in Excel and work with results produced by advanced stats packages such as SAS and SPSS. This book comes with an extensive collection of downloadable Excel workbooks you can easily adapt to your own unique requirements, plus VBA code to streamline several of its most complex techniques. Classify data according to existing categories or naturally occurring clusters of predictor variables Cut massive numbers of variables and records down to size, so you can get the answers you really need Utilize cluster analysis to find patterns of similarity for market research and many other applications Learn how multiple discriminant analysis helps you classify cases Use MANOVA to decide whether groups differ on multivariate centroids Use principal components to explore data, find patterns, and identify latent factors Register your book for access to all sample workbooks, updates, and corrections as they become available at quepublishing.com/title/9780789751683.

Statistical Analysis

Author: Conrad Carlberg
Publisher: Que Publishing
ISBN: 9780133823998
Release Date: 2014-04-04
Genre: Business & Economics

Use Excel 2013’s statistical tools to transform your data into knowledge Conrad Carlberg shows how to use Excel 2013 to perform core statistical tasks every business professional, student, and researcher should master. Using real-world examples, Carlberg helps you choose the right technique for each problem and get the most out of Excel’s statistical features, including recently introduced consistency functions. Along the way, he clarifies confusing statistical terminology and helps you avoid common mistakes. You’ll learn how to use correlation and regression, analyze variance and covariance, and test statistical hypotheses using the normal, binomial, t, and F distributions. To help you make accurate inferences based on samples from a population, this edition adds two more chapters on inferential statistics, covering crucial topics ranging from experimental design to the statistical power of F tests. Becoming an expert with Excel statistics has never been easier! You’ll find crystal-clear instructions, insider insights, and complete step-by-step projects—all complemented by extensive web-based resources. Master Excel’s most useful descriptive and inferential statistical tools Tell the truth with statistics—and recognize when others don’t Accurately summarize sets of values Infer a population’s characteristics from a sample’s frequency distribution Explore correlation and regression to learn how variables move in tandem Use Excel consistency functions such as STDEV.S() and STDEV.P() Test differences between two means using z tests, t tests, and Excel’s Data Analysis Add-in Use ANOVA to test differences between more than two means Explore statistical power by manipulating mean differences, standard errors, directionality, and alpha Take advantage of Recommended PivotTables, Quick Analysis, and other Excel 2013 shortcuts

Predictive Analytics with Microsoft Azure Machine Learning 2nd Edition

Author: Valentine Fontama
Publisher: Apress
ISBN: 9781484212004
Release Date: 2015-08-26
Genre: Computers

Predictive Analytics with Microsoft Azure Machine Learning, Second Edition is a practical tutorial introduction to the field of data science and machine learning, with a focus on building and deploying predictive models. The book provides a thorough overview of the Microsoft Azure Machine Learning service released for general availability on February 18th, 2015 with practical guidance for building recommenders, propensity models, and churn and predictive maintenance models. The authors use task oriented descriptions and concrete end-to-end examples to ensure that the reader can immediately begin using this new service. The book describes all aspects of the service from data ingress to applying machine learning, evaluating the models, and deploying them as web services. Learn how you can quickly build and deploy sophisticated predictive models with the new Azure Machine Learning from Microsoft. What’s New in the Second Edition? Five new chapters have been added with practical detailed coverage of: Python Integration – a new feature announced February 2015 Data preparation and feature selection Data visualization with Power BI Recommendation engines Selling your models on Azure Marketplace

Business Analysis

Author: Conrad Carlberg
Publisher: Pearson Education
ISBN: 0789746891
Release Date: 2010-06-09
Genre: Computers

ANSWER KEY BUSINESS QUESTIONS CONTROL COMPANY FINANCES FORECAST SALES PREPARE BUSINESS CASES MAKE BETTER INVESTMENT DECISIONS IMPROVE QUALITY USE EXCEL 2010 TO GAIN DEEPER INSIGHTS, MAKE SMARTER DECISIONS, AND EARN MORE PROFITS Using real-world examples, Carlberg helps you put Excel’s features and functions to work and get the power of quantitative analysis behind your management decisions. Excel expert Conrad Carlberg shows how to use Excel 2010 to perform the core financial tasks every manager and entrepreneur must master: analyzing statements, planning and controlling company finances, making investment decisions, and managing sales and marketing. Using real-world examples, Carlberg helps you get the absolute most out of Excel 2010’s newest features and functions. Along the way, you’ll discover the fastest, best ways to handle essential tasks ranging from importing business data to analyzing profitability ratios. Becoming an Excel expert has never been easier! You’ll find crystal-clear instructions, insider insights, complete step-by-step projects, and more. It’s all complemented by an extraordinary set of web-based resources, from sample journals and ledgers to business forecasting tools. • Use Excel analysis tools to solve problems throughout the business • Build and work with income statements and balance sheets • Value inventories and current assets, and summarize transactions • Calculate working capital and analyze cash flows • Move from pro formas to operating budgets that help guide your management decisions • Prepare business cases incorporating everything from discount rates to margin and contribution analysis About MrExcel Library: Every book in the MrExcel Library pinpoints a specific set of crucial Excel skills, and presents focused tasks and examples for performing them rapidly and effectively. Selected by Bill Jelen, Microsoft Excel MVP and mastermind behind the leading Excel solutions website MrExcel.com, these books will: • Dramatically increase your productivity–saving you 50 hours a year, or more • Present proven, creative strategies for solving real-world problems • Show you how to get great results, no matter how much data you have • Help you avoid critical mistakes that even experienced users make

Excel Data Analysis

Author: Hector Guerrero
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642108350
Release Date: 2010-03-10
Genre: Business & Economics

Why does the World Need—Excel Data Analysis, Modeling, and Simulation? When spreadsheets ?rst became widely available in the early 1980s, it spawned a revolution in teaching. What previously could only be done with arcane software and large scale computing was now available to the common-man, on a desktop. Also, before spreadsheets, most substantial analytical work was done outside the classroom where the tools were; spreadsheets and personal computers moved the work into the classroom. Not only did it change how the analysis curriculum was taught, but it also empowered students to venture out on their own to explore new ways to use the tools. I can’t tell you how many phone calls, of?ce visits, and/or emails I have received in my teaching career from ecstatic students crowing about what they have just done with a spreadsheet model. I have been teaching courses related to spreadsheet based analysis and modeling for about 25 years and I have watched and participated in the spreadsheet revolution.

Foundations of Predictive Analytics

Author: James Wu
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 9781439869482
Release Date: 2012-02-15
Genre: Business & Economics

Drawing on the authors’ two decades of experience in applied modeling and data mining, Foundations of Predictive Analytics presents the fundamental background required for analyzing data and building models for many practical applications, such as consumer behavior modeling, risk and marketing analytics, and other areas. It also discusses a variety of practical topics that are frequently missing from similar texts. The book begins with the statistical and linear algebra/matrix foundation of modeling methods, from distributions to cumulant and copula functions to Cornish–Fisher expansion and other useful but hard-to-find statistical techniques. It then describes common and unusual linear methods as well as popular nonlinear modeling approaches, including additive models, trees, support vector machine, fuzzy systems, clustering, naïve Bayes, and neural nets. The authors go on to cover methodologies used in time series and forecasting, such as ARIMA, GARCH, and survival analysis. They also present a range of optimization techniques and explore several special topics, such as Dempster–Shafer theory. An in-depth collection of the most important fundamental material on predictive analytics, this self-contained book provides the necessary information for understanding various techniques for exploratory data analysis and modeling. It explains the algorithmic details behind each technique (including underlying assumptions and mathematical formulations) and shows how to prepare and encode data, select variables, use model goodness measures, normalize odds, and perform reject inference. Web Resource The book’s website at www.DataMinerXL.com offers the DataMinerXL software for building predictive models. The site also includes more examples and information on modeling.

Excel Sales Forecasting For Dummies

Author: Conrad Carlberg
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9781119291435
Release Date: 2016-06-23
Genre: Computers

Excel at predicting sales and forecasting trends using Microsoft Excel! If you're a sales or marketing professional, you know that forecasting sales is one of the biggest challenges you face on the job. Unlike other books on the subject, Excel Sales Forecasting For Dummies, 2nd Edition leaves arcane business school terms and complex algebraic equations at the door, focusing instead on what you can do right now to utilize the world's most popular spreadsheet program to produce forecasts you can rely on. Loaded with confidence boosters for anyone who succumbs to sweaty palms when sales predictions are mentioned, this trusted guide show you how to use the many tools Excel provides to arrange your past data, set up lists and pivot tables, use moving averages, and so much more. Before you know it, you'll become a forecaster par excellence—even if numbers aren't your jam. Choose the right forecasting method Find relationships in your data Predict seasonal sales Filter lists or turn them into charts Consider this guide your crystal ball—and start predicting the future with confidence and ease!

Excel Simulations

Author: Gerard Verschuuren
Publisher: Tickling Keys, Inc.
ISBN: 9781615473359
Release Date: 2013-11-01
Genre: Computers

Covering a variety of Excel simulations, from gambling to genetics, this introduction is for people interested in modeling future events, without the cost of an expensive textbook. The simulations covered offer a fun alternative to the usual Excel topics and include situations such as roulette, password cracking, sex determination, population growth, and traffic patterns, among many others.

Fundamentals of Predictive Analytics with JMP Second Edition

Author: Ron Klimberg, PhD
Publisher: SAS Institute
ISBN: 9781629608013
Release Date: 2016-12-20
Genre: Computers

Written for students in undergraduate and graduate statistics courses, as well as for the practitioner who wants to make better decisions from data and models, this updated and expanded second edition of Fundamentals of Predictive Analytics with JMP® bridges the gap between courses on basic statistics, which focus on univariate and bivariate analysis, and courses on data mining and predictive analytics. Going beyond the theoretical foundation, this book gives you the technical knowledge and problem-solving skills that you need to perform real-world multivariate data analysis. First, this book teaches you to recognize when it is appropriate to use a tool, what variables and data are required, and what the results might be. Second, it teaches you how to interpret the results and then, step-by-step, how and where to perform and evaluate the analysis in JMP®. Using JMP® 13 and JMP® 13 Pro, this book offers the following new and enhanced features in an example-driven format: an add-in for Microsoft Excel Graph Builder dirty data visualization regression ANOVA logistic regression principal component analysis LASSO elastic net cluster analysis decision trees k-nearest neighbors neural networks bootstrap forests boosted trees text mining association rules model comparison With today's emphasis on business intelligence, business analytics, and predictive analytics, this second edition is invaluable to anyone who needs to expand his or her knowledge of statistics and to apply real-world, problem-solving analysis. This book is part of the SAS Press program.

Predictive Business Analytics

Author: Lawrence Maisel
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9781118240151
Release Date: 2013-09-26
Genre: Business & Economics

Discover the breakthrough tool your company can use to make winning decisions This forward-thinking book addresses the emergence of predictive business analytics, how it can help redefine the way your organization operates, and many of the misconceptions that impede the adoption of this new management capability. Filled with case examples, Predictive Business Analytics defines ways in which specific industries have applied these techniques and tools and how predictive business analytics can complement other financial applications such as budgeting, forecasting, and performance reporting. Examines how predictive business analytics can help your organization understand its various drivers of performance, their relationship to future outcomes, and improve managerial decision-making Looks at how to develop new insights and understand business performance based on extensive use of data, statistical and quantitative analysis, and explanatory and predictive modeling Written for senior financial professionals, as well as general and divisional senior management Visionary and effective, Predictive Business Analytics reveals how you can use your business's skills, technologies, tools, and processes for continuous analysis of past business performance to gain forward-looking insight and drive business decisions and actions.

Microsoft Excel 2013 Data Analysis and Business Modeling

Author: Wayne Winston
Publisher: Pearson Education
ISBN: 9780735681071
Release Date: 2014-01-15
Genre: Business & Economics

Master business modeling and analysis techniques with Microsoft Excel 2013, and transform data into bottom-line results. Written by award-winning educator Wayne Winston, this hands-on, scenario-focused guide shows you how to use the latest Excel tools to integrate data from multiple tables—and how to effectively build a relational data source inside an Excel workbook. Solve real business problems with Excel—and sharpen your edge Summarize data with PivotTables and Descriptive Statistics Explore new trends in predictive and prescriptive analytics Use Excel Trend Curves, multiple regression, and exponential smoothing Master advanced Excel functions such as OFFSET and INDIRECT Delve into key financial, statistical, and time functions Make your charts more effective with the Power View tool Tame complex optimization problems with Excel Solver Run Monte Carlo simulations on stock prices and bidding models Apply important modeling tools such as the Inquire add-in

Predictive Policing

Author: Walt L. Perry
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 9780833081551
Release Date: 2013-09-23
Genre: Computers

Predictive policing is the use of analytical techniques to identify targets for police intervention with the goal of preventing crime, solving past crimes, or identifying potential offenders and victims. These tools are not a substitute for integrated approaches to policing, nor are they a crystal ball. This guide assesses some of the most promising technical tools and tactical approaches for acting on predictions in an effective way.

Data Smart

Author: John W. Foreman
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9781118839867
Release Date: 2013-10-31
Genre: Business & Economics

Data Science gets thrown around in the press like it's magic. Major retailers are predicting everything from when their customers are pregnant to when they want a new pair of Chuck Taylors. It's a brave new world where seemingly meaningless data can be transformed into valuable insight to drive smart business decisions. But how does one exactly do data science? Do you have to hire one of these priests of the dark arts, the "data scientist," to extract this gold from your data? Nope. Data science is little more than using straight-forward steps to process raw data into actionable insight. And in Data Smart, author and data scientist John Foreman will show you how that's done within the familiar environment of a spreadsheet. Why a spreadsheet? It's comfortable! You get to look at the data every step of the way, building confidence as you learn the tricks of the trade. Plus, spreadsheets are a vendor-neutral place to learn data science without the hype. But don't let the Excel sheets fool you. This is a book for those serious about learning the analytic techniques, the math and the magic, behind big data. Each chapter will cover a different technique in a spreadsheet so you can follow along: Mathematical optimization, including non-linear programming and genetic algorithms Clustering via k-means, spherical k-means, and graph modularity Data mining in graphs, such as outlier detection Supervised AI through logistic regression, ensemble models, and bag-of-words models Forecasting, seasonal adjustments, and prediction intervals through monte carlo simulation Moving from spreadsheets into the R programming language You get your hands dirty as you work alongside John through each technique. But never fear, the topics are readily applicable and the author laces humor throughout. You'll even learn what a dead squirrel has to do with optimization modeling, which you no doubt are dying to know.