Predicting the Future

Author: Leo Howe
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 0521413230
Release Date: 1993-03-25
Genre: Science

Whether there is a future to predict is not a question many people care to think about too deeply, though the process of predicting the future has itself a history. We did not always predict from the same assumptions as we do now, or for the same reasons. Today, on the basis of empirical observation and scientific theory, accredited experts and specialists forecast the economy, the social consequences of medical innovation and even what will happen to the universe in billions of years time. In the past soothsayers, priests, oracles and comets foretold the future on the basis of religious ideology and traditional authority. In a remarkable series of thought-provoking essays the authors examine both approaches and their consequences and chart our continuing attempts to see beyond the present.

Leading Economic Indicators

Author: Kajal Lahiri
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 0521438586
Release Date: 1992-10-30
Genre: Business & Economics

Developed fifty years ago by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the analytic methods of business cycles and economic indicators enable economists to forecast economic trends by examining the repetitive sequences that occur in business cycles. The methodology has proven to be an inexpensive and useful tool that is now used extensively throughout the world. In recent years, however, significant new developments have emerged in the field of business cycles and economic indicators. This volume contains twenty-two articles by international experts who are working with new and innovative approaches to indicator research. They cover advances in three broad areas of research: the use of new developments in economic theory and time-series analysis to rationalize existing systems of indicators; more appropriate methods to evaluate the forecasting records of leading indicators, particularly of turning point probability; and the development of new indicators.

Turn taking in human communicative interaction

Author: Judith Holler
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
ISBN: 9782889198252
Release Date: 2016-05-09
Genre: Conversation

The core use of language is in face-to-face conversation. This is characterized by rapid turn-taking. This turn-taking poses a number central puzzles for the psychology of language. Consider, for example, that in large corpora the gap between turns is on the order of 100 to 300 ms, but the latencies involved in language production require minimally between 600 ms (for a single word) or 1500 ms (for as simple sentence). This implies that participants in conversation are predicting the ends of the incoming turn and preparing in advance. But how is this done? What aspects of this prediction are done when? What happens when the prediction is wrong? What stops participants coming in too early? If the system is running on prediction, why is there consistently a mode of 100 to 300 ms in response time? The timing puzzle raises further puzzles: it seems that comprehension must run parallel with the preparation for production, but it has been presumed that there are strict cognitive limitations on more than one central process running at a time. How is this bottleneck overcome? Far from being 'easy' as some psychologists have suggested, conversation may be one of the most demanding cognitive tasks in our everyday lives. Further questions naturally arise: how do children learn to master this demanding task, and what is the developmental trajectory in this domain? Research shows that aspects of turn-taking, such as its timing, are remarkably stable across languages and cultures, but the word order of languages varies enormously. How then does prediction of the incoming turn work when the verb (often the informational nugget in a clause) is at the end? Conversely, how can production work fast enough in languages that have the verb at the beginning, thereby requiring early planning of the whole clause? What happens when one changes modality, as in sign languages – with the loss of channel constraints is turn-taking much freer? And what about face-to-face communication amongst hearing individuals – do gestures, gaze, and other body behaviors facilitate turn-taking? One can also ask the phylogenetic question: how did such a system evolve? There seem to be parallels (analogies) in duetting bird species, and in a variety of monkey species, but there is little evidence of anything like this among the great apes. All this constitutes a neglected set of problems at the heart of the psychology of language and of the language sciences. This Research Topic contributes to advancing our understanding of these problems by summarizing recent work from psycholinguists, developmental psychologists, students of dialog and conversation analysis, linguists, phoneticians, and comparative ethologists.

Counting Cards In Texas Hold Em Poker

Author: Rye Morrison
Publisher: Lulu.com
ISBN: 9781329670839
Release Date: 2016-06-16
Genre: Games

This book is not like most poker books that are on the market. It does not tell you how you should act at the poker table, or when you should bluff or bet. Rather, from this book you will learn a tried-and-true method to predict what cards are more likely to come out on the board: the community cards, the flop, the turn, and that nasty ol' river!--Cover.

Farm Power and Machinery Management

Author: Donnell Hunt
Publisher: Waveland Press
ISBN: 9781478631774
Release Date: 2015-10-01
Genre: Technology & Engineering

The latest, extensively updated edition of Farm Power and Machinery Management continues the tradition of providing students, farmers, farm operators, and farm managers with comprehensive information on how to properly manage and optimize the use of mechanized equipment to reduce costs and maximize profits. This full-featured text analyzes the factors that comprise machinery management, explains the functions of the various machines and mechanisms as they affect economic operation, and offers contemporary approaches and procedures for making management decisions. The authoritative coverage of current management principles and the machinery-operating details make this text an outstanding choice for courses in agricultural education, agricultural mechanization, agricultural business, and agricultural engineering. An understanding of agricultural practices, college algebra, and trigonometry are adequate preparation for using this text. Abundant figures, photographs, and charts, along with problems and laboratory exercises, reinforce the applicability of significant concepts, thereby empowering readers to become successful farm machinery managers and operators. New or updated features and coverage in the Eleventh Edition . . . • photos of tractors, implements, and special crop machines • IRS policy related to farm machinery • expanded list of timeliness factors • instrumentation available to farm machines • tractor test results • required diesel engine emission control • constantly variable transmission (CVT) • tire data and oil specifications • custom, rental, and estimated costs for farm machinery operations • remote sensing of field conditions • farm safety data • number of machines on US farms • US crop areas and values

Protein Structure

Author: Daniel Chasman
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 9780824748166
Release Date: 2003-03-18
Genre: Medical

This text offers in-depth perspectives on every aspect of protein structure identification, assessment, characterization, and utilization, for a clear understanding of the diversity of protein shapes, variations in protein function, and structure-based drug design. The authors cover numerous high-throughput technologies as well as computational methods to study protein structures and residues. A valuable reference, this book reflects current trends in the effort to solve new structures arising from genome initiatives, details methods to detect and identify errors in the prediction of protein structural models, and outlines challenges in the conversion of routine processes into high-throughput platforms.

Artificial Immune Systems

Author: Giuseppe Nicosia
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9783540230977
Release Date: 2004-09-07
Genre: Computers

This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the Third International Conference on Artificial Immune Systems, ICARIS 2004, held in Catania, Sicily, Italy, in September 2004. The 34 revised full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 58 submissions. The papers are organized in topical sections on applications of artificial immune systems; conceptual, formal, and theoretical frameworks; artificial immune systems for robotics; emerging metaphors; immunoinformatics; theoretical and experimental studies; future applications; networks; modeling; and distinguishing properties of artificial immune systems.

Predicting the Past

Author: Michael Boyden
Publisher: Leuven University Press
ISBN: 9789058677310
Release Date: 2009
Genre: Literary Criticism

Drawing from the social theories of Niklas Luhmann and Mary Douglas, Predicting the Past advocates a reflexive understanding of the paradoxical institutional dynamic of American literary history as a professional discipline and field of study. Contrary to most disciplinary accounts, Michael Boyden resists the utopian impulse to offer supposedly definitive solutions for the legitimation crises besetting American literature studies by "going beyond" its inherited racist, classist, and sexist underpinnings. Approaching the existence of the American literary tradition as a typically modern problem generating diverse but functionally equivalent solutions, Boyden argues how its peculiarity does not, as is often supposed, reside in its restrictive exclusivity but rather in its massive inclusivity, which drives it to constantly revert to a self-negating "beyond" perspective. Predicting the Past covers a broad range of literary histories and reference works, from Rufus Griswold's 1847 Prose Writers of America to Sacvan Bercovitch's monumental Cambridge History of American Literature. Throughout, Boyden focuses on particular themes and topics illustrating the self-induced complexity of American literary history, such as the early "Anglocentric" roots theories of American literature; the debate on contemporary authors in the age of naturalism; the plurilingual ethnocentrism of the pioneer Americanists of the mid-twentieth century; and the genealogical misrepresentation of founding figures such as Jonathan Edwards, Emily Dickinson, and Robert Lowell.

Wilderness Navigation

Author: Bob Burns
Publisher: The Mountaineers Books
ISBN: 9781594852060
Release Date: 2012-12-20
Genre: Sports & Recreation

* GPS chapter completely updated to reflect newer models and features of GPS receivers now available * Expanded to include a section on routefinding on glaciers, along with additional information on changing declination * Extensive illustrated examples of orientation and wilderness navigation Proceed with confidence when heading off-road or off-trail with the second edition of Wilderness Navigation. Whether you are climbing a glacier, orienteering in the backcountry, or on an easy day hike, Mike and Bob Burns cover all the latest technology and time-tested methods to help you learn to navigate-from how to read a map to compasses and geomagnetism. Bob Burns is a long-time member of The Mountaineers. He has taught classes in the use of map and compass since the late 1970s. Mike Burns is an avid climber. He has instructed climbing and navigation classes, and written articles for Climbing magazine. Part of the The Mountaineers Outdoor Basics series! Created for beginning-to-intermediate enthusiasts, this series includes everything anyone would need to know about staying safe and having fun in the backcountry.

Predicting the Unthinkable Anticipating the Impossible

Author: Georgie Anne Geyer
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 9781351497107
Release Date: 2017-09-04
Genre: History

In the 1980s, most Americans scoffed at the idea that the Communist empire could collapse - but Georgie Anne Geyer was already outlining that probability. In the 1990s, the world was stunned by wars that raged across post-Yugoslavia and their viciousness - but Geyer on a trip to Belgrade in 1989, interviewed top officials and anticipated the conflicts. When 9/11 occurred, she used common sense and said, 'This was inevitable - the terrorists had already attacked the World Trade Center in 1993 and criminals always return to the scene of the crime.'Geyer argues that while the United States was being praised everywhere during this era of 'indispensable power' as the 'greatest power the world has known,' it actually had started on the road to decline. It had won the Cold War, but had immediately embarked upon more Vietnam-like small wars of tremendous cost in Iraq and Afghanistan. Across the board, it was no longer paying its way, while its domestic culture was being vulgarized at every turn.This book explains how, when, and where these declines happened. Geyer studies the history of nations and of peoples, observes human nature, particularly as influenced by religion and ideology; and is a close analyst of the acts of men and women when they perceive they have been humiliated by others or by history. She warns Americans and journalists that we must anticipate the changes in the world before they are upon us and that we must employ predictions to strengthen our nation and its principles.

Predicting the Unpredictable

Author: Susan Elizabeth Hough
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 9781400883547
Release Date: 2016-10-25
Genre: Science

An earthquake can strike without warning and wreak horrific destruction and death, whether it's the catastrophic 2010 quake that took a devastating toll on the island nation of Haiti or a future great earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in California, which scientists know is inevitable. Yet despite rapid advances in earthquake science, seismologists still can’t predict when the Big One will hit. Predicting the Unpredictable explains why, exploring the fact and fiction behind the science—and pseudoscience—of earthquake prediction. Susan Hough traces the continuing quest by seismologists to forecast the time, location, and magnitude of future quakes. She brings readers into the laboratory and out into the field—describing attempts that have raised hopes only to collapse under scrutiny, as well as approaches that seem to hold future promise. She also ventures to the fringes of pseudoscience to consider ideas outside the scientific mainstream. An entertaining and accessible foray into the world of earthquake prediction, Predicting the Unpredictable illuminates the unique challenges of predicting earthquakes.

Conservative Party Politicians at the Turn of the 20th 21st Centuries Their Attitudes Behaviour and Background

Author: Dr Nigel Gervas Meek
Publisher: Lulu.com
ISBN: 9781471700804
Release Date: 2012
Genre: Political Science

Using data collected from one of the most comprehensive quantitative surveys of its type, "Conservative party politicians at the turn of the 20th/21st centuries" offers an authoritative insight into the behaviour, background and attitudes of Conservative politicians in England, Scotland and Wales at all levels from local councillors to MPs, Peers and MEPs.