Predicting the Future

Author: Leo Howe
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 0521413230
Release Date: 1993-03-25
Genre: Science

Whether there is a future to predict is not a question many people care to think about too deeply, though the process of predicting the future has itself a history. We did not always predict from the same assumptions as we do now, or for the same reasons. Today, on the basis of empirical observation and scientific theory, accredited experts and specialists forecast the economy, the social consequences of medical innovation and even what will happen to the universe in billions of years time. In the past soothsayers, priests, oracles and comets foretold the future on the basis of religious ideology and traditional authority. In a remarkable series of thought-provoking essays the authors examine both approaches and their consequences and chart our continuing attempts to see beyond the present.

Leading Economic Indicators

Author: Kajal Lahiri
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 0521438586
Release Date: 1992-10-30
Genre: Business & Economics

Developed fifty years ago by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the analytic methods of business cycles and economic indicators enable economists to forecast economic trends by examining the repetitive sequences that occur in business cycles. The methodology has proven to be an inexpensive and useful tool that is now used extensively throughout the world. In recent years, however, significant new developments have emerged in the field of business cycles and economic indicators. This volume contains twenty-two articles by international experts who are working with new and innovative approaches to indicator research. They cover advances in three broad areas of research: the use of new developments in economic theory and time-series analysis to rationalize existing systems of indicators; more appropriate methods to evaluate the forecasting records of leading indicators, particularly of turning point probability; and the development of new indicators.

Turn taking in human communicative interaction

Author: Judith Holler
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
ISBN: 9782889198252
Release Date: 2016-05-09
Genre: Conversation

The core use of language is in face-to-face conversation. This is characterized by rapid turn-taking. This turn-taking poses a number central puzzles for the psychology of language. Consider, for example, that in large corpora the gap between turns is on the order of 100 to 300 ms, but the latencies involved in language production require minimally between 600 ms (for a single word) or 1500 ms (for as simple sentence). This implies that participants in conversation are predicting the ends of the incoming turn and preparing in advance. But how is this done? What aspects of this prediction are done when? What happens when the prediction is wrong? What stops participants coming in too early? If the system is running on prediction, why is there consistently a mode of 100 to 300 ms in response time? The timing puzzle raises further puzzles: it seems that comprehension must run parallel with the preparation for production, but it has been presumed that there are strict cognitive limitations on more than one central process running at a time. How is this bottleneck overcome? Far from being 'easy' as some psychologists have suggested, conversation may be one of the most demanding cognitive tasks in our everyday lives. Further questions naturally arise: how do children learn to master this demanding task, and what is the developmental trajectory in this domain? Research shows that aspects of turn-taking, such as its timing, are remarkably stable across languages and cultures, but the word order of languages varies enormously. How then does prediction of the incoming turn work when the verb (often the informational nugget in a clause) is at the end? Conversely, how can production work fast enough in languages that have the verb at the beginning, thereby requiring early planning of the whole clause? What happens when one changes modality, as in sign languages – with the loss of channel constraints is turn-taking much freer? And what about face-to-face communication amongst hearing individuals – do gestures, gaze, and other body behaviors facilitate turn-taking? One can also ask the phylogenetic question: how did such a system evolve? There seem to be parallels (analogies) in duetting bird species, and in a variety of monkey species, but there is little evidence of anything like this among the great apes. All this constitutes a neglected set of problems at the heart of the psychology of language and of the language sciences. This Research Topic contributes to advancing our understanding of these problems by summarizing recent work from psycholinguists, developmental psychologists, students of dialog and conversation analysis, linguists, phoneticians, and comparative ethologists.

Predicting the Past

Author: Michael Boyden
Publisher: Leuven University Press
ISBN: 9789058677310
Release Date: 2009
Genre: Literary Criticism

Drawing from the social theories of Niklas Luhmann and Mary Douglas, Predicting the Past advocates a reflexive understanding of the paradoxical institutional dynamic of American literary history as a professional discipline and field of study. Contrary to most disciplinary accounts, Michael Boyden resists the utopian impulse to offer supposedly definitive solutions for the legitimation crises besetting American literature studies by "going beyond" its inherited racist, classist, and sexist underpinnings. Approaching the existence of the American literary tradition as a typically modern problem generating diverse but functionally equivalent solutions, Boyden argues how its peculiarity does not, as is often supposed, reside in its restrictive exclusivity but rather in its massive inclusivity, which drives it to constantly revert to a self-negating "beyond" perspective. Predicting the Past covers a broad range of literary histories and reference works, from Rufus Griswold's 1847 Prose Writers of America to Sacvan Bercovitch's monumental Cambridge History of American Literature. Throughout, Boyden focuses on particular themes and topics illustrating the self-induced complexity of American literary history, such as the early "Anglocentric" roots theories of American literature; the debate on contemporary authors in the age of naturalism; the plurilingual ethnocentrism of the pioneer Americanists of the mid-twentieth century; and the genealogical misrepresentation of founding figures such as Jonathan Edwards, Emily Dickinson, and Robert Lowell.

Imf Survey No 13 2005

Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 9781455217458
Release Date: 2005-07-19
Genre: Business & Economics

The Web edition of the IMF Survey is updated several times a week, and contains a wealth of articles about topical policy and economic issues in the news. Access the latest IMF research, read interviews, and listen to podcasts given by top IMF economists on important issues in the global economy.

Economic Forecasting

Author: Terence C. Mills
Publisher: Edward Elgar Pub
ISBN: IND:30000076339542
Release Date: 1999-01-01
Genre: Business & Economics

This two-volume set presents previously published papers addressing the long, sometimes checkered history of economic forecasting. In Volume I, 23 papers published between 1924 and 1997 discuss early attempts, macroeconomic forecasting and policy making, time series forecasting, and the econometrics of forecasting. Volume II contains 35 papers published between 1959 and 1998 that cover forecast evaluation, forecasting with leading indicators, forecasting in finance, and economic forecasting using surveys.

Predicting the Next President

Author: Allan J. Lichtman
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers
ISBN: 9781442212121
Release Date: 2011-12-16
Genre: Political Science

In Predicting the Next President political analyst and historian Allan J. Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or “keys” (four political, seven performance, and two personality), that determine the outcome of presidential elections.

Theory and Applications of the Analytic Network Process

Author: Thomas L. Saaty
Publisher: RWS Publications
ISBN: 9781888603163
Release Date:
Genre: Business & Economics

The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and its generalization to dependence and feedback, the Analytic Network Process (ANP), are methods of relative measurement of tangibles and intangibles. Being able to derive such measurements is essential for making good decisions. This book is based on the Analytic Network Process and lays out a new approach for making decisions in light of their benefits, opportunities, costs and risks (BOCR) shows how to include the strategic criteria of the decision-maker that must be satisfied regardless of the particular decision being undertaken. This book includes all the important background material from the earlier book, The Analytic Network Process: Decision Making with Dependence and Feedback, published in 2001, and goes farther with new examples of estimating market share of companies based on the intangibles of customer perception, and new applications involving Benefits, Opportunities, Costs and Risks.

Predicting the Past in the Ancient Near East

Author: Matthew Neujahr
Publisher: Society of Biblical Lit
ISBN: 9781930675810
Release Date: 2012-11-06
Genre: Religion

This work provides an in-depth investigation of after-the-fact predictions in ancient Near Eastern texts from roughly 1200 B.C.E.–70 C.E. It argues that the Akkadian, Aramaic, Hebrew, and Greek works discussed are all part of a developing scribal discourse of “mantic historiography” by which scribes blend their local traditions of history writing and predictive texts to produce a new mode of historiographic expression. This in turn calls into question the use and usefulness of traditional literary categories such as “apocalypse” to analyze such works.