Predicting the Future

Author: Leo Howe
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 0521413230
Release Date: 1993-03-25
Genre: Science

Whether there is a future to predict is not a question many people care to think about too deeply, though the process of predicting the future has itself a history. We did not always predict from the same assumptions as we do now, or for the same reasons. Today, on the basis of empirical observation and scientific theory, accredited experts and specialists forecast the economy, the social consequences of medical innovation and even what will happen to the universe in billions of years time. In the past soothsayers, priests, oracles and comets foretold the future on the basis of religious ideology and traditional authority. In a remarkable series of thought-provoking essays the authors examine both approaches and their consequences and chart our continuing attempts to see beyond the present.

Turn taking in human communicative interaction

Author: Judith Holler
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
ISBN: 9782889198252
Release Date: 2016-05-09
Genre: Conversation

The core use of language is in face-to-face conversation. This is characterized by rapid turn-taking. This turn-taking poses a number central puzzles for the psychology of language. Consider, for example, that in large corpora the gap between turns is on the order of 100 to 300 ms, but the latencies involved in language production require minimally between 600 ms (for a single word) or 1500 ms (for as simple sentence). This implies that participants in conversation are predicting the ends of the incoming turn and preparing in advance. But how is this done? What aspects of this prediction are done when? What happens when the prediction is wrong? What stops participants coming in too early? If the system is running on prediction, why is there consistently a mode of 100 to 300 ms in response time? The timing puzzle raises further puzzles: it seems that comprehension must run parallel with the preparation for production, but it has been presumed that there are strict cognitive limitations on more than one central process running at a time. How is this bottleneck overcome? Far from being 'easy' as some psychologists have suggested, conversation may be one of the most demanding cognitive tasks in our everyday lives. Further questions naturally arise: how do children learn to master this demanding task, and what is the developmental trajectory in this domain? Research shows that aspects of turn-taking, such as its timing, are remarkably stable across languages and cultures, but the word order of languages varies enormously. How then does prediction of the incoming turn work when the verb (often the informational nugget in a clause) is at the end? Conversely, how can production work fast enough in languages that have the verb at the beginning, thereby requiring early planning of the whole clause? What happens when one changes modality, as in sign languages – with the loss of channel constraints is turn-taking much freer? And what about face-to-face communication amongst hearing individuals – do gestures, gaze, and other body behaviors facilitate turn-taking? One can also ask the phylogenetic question: how did such a system evolve? There seem to be parallels (analogies) in duetting bird species, and in a variety of monkey species, but there is little evidence of anything like this among the great apes. All this constitutes a neglected set of problems at the heart of the psychology of language and of the language sciences. This Research Topic contributes to advancing our understanding of these problems by summarizing recent work from psycholinguists, developmental psychologists, students of dialog and conversation analysis, linguists, phoneticians, and comparative ethologists.

Psychology at the Turn of the Millennium Volume 1

Author: Lars Backman
Publisher: Psychology Press
ISBN: 9781135431631
Release Date: 2005-08-18
Genre: Psychology

These two volumes represent the cutting edge of contemporary theory and research in psychological science. Based on the keynote and state-of-the-art lectures from the 27th International Congress of Psychology, the volumes feature a collection of chapters written by international leaders in psychological scholarship. The chapters reflect the diversity of current research topics in psychology, where old boundaries have become obsolete and subdivisions from the past merge to form new objects of study. Volume 1 addresses cognitive, biological, and health perspectives. It includes sections on the neural mechanisms underlying psychological processes; the core areas in experimental psychology, perception, attention, learning, and memory; the multiple aspects of psychological health; the interaction between cognitive and emotional processes; and higher cognitive processes with special focus on decision-making and language. Volume 2 deals with social, developmental, and clinical perspectives. The sections highlight human development across the life span; basic and applied issues in personality, emotion, and clinical psychology; social psychology, ranging from experimental work through social constructivism; and gender.

Imf Survey No 13 2005

Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 9781455217458
Release Date: 2005-07-19
Genre: Business & Economics

The Web edition of the IMF Survey is updated several times a week, and contains a wealth of articles about topical policy and economic issues in the news. Access the latest IMF research, read interviews, and listen to podcasts given by top IMF economists on important issues in the global economy. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx

Predicting the Unpredictable

Author: Susan Elizabeth Hough
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 9781400883547
Release Date: 2016-10-25
Genre: Science

An earthquake can strike without warning and wreak horrific destruction and death, whether it's the catastrophic 2010 quake that took a devastating toll on the island nation of Haiti or a future great earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in California, which scientists know is inevitable. Yet despite rapid advances in earthquake science, seismologists still can’t predict when the Big One will hit. Predicting the Unpredictable explains why, exploring the fact and fiction behind the science—and pseudoscience—of earthquake prediction. Susan Hough traces the continuing quest by seismologists to forecast the time, location, and magnitude of future quakes. She brings readers into the laboratory and out into the field—describing attempts that have raised hopes only to collapse under scrutiny, as well as approaches that seem to hold future promise. She also ventures to the fringes of pseudoscience to consider ideas outside the scientific mainstream. An entertaining and accessible foray into the world of earthquake prediction, Predicting the Unpredictable illuminates the unique challenges of predicting earthquakes.

Theory and Applications of the Analytic Network Process

Author: Thomas L. Saaty
Publisher: RWS Publications
ISBN: 9781888603163
Release Date:
Genre: Business & Economics

The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and its generalization to dependence and feedback, the Analytic Network Process (ANP), are methods of relative measurement of tangibles and intangibles. Being able to derive such measurements is essential for making good decisions. This book is based on the Analytic Network Process and lays out a new approach for making decisions in light of their benefits, opportunities, costs and risks (BOCR) shows how to include the strategic criteria of the decision-maker that must be satisfied regardless of the particular decision being undertaken. This book includes all the important background material from the earlier book, The Analytic Network Process: Decision Making with Dependence and Feedback, published in 2001, and goes farther with new examples of estimating market share of companies based on the intangibles of customer perception, and new applications involving Benefits, Opportunities, Costs and Risks.

Economic Forecasting

Author: Terence C. Mills
Publisher: Edward Elgar Pub
ISBN: IND:30000076339542
Release Date: 1999-01-01
Genre: Business & Economics

This two-volume set presents previously published papers addressing the long, sometimes checkered history of economic forecasting. In Volume I, 23 papers published between 1924 and 1997 discuss early attempts, macroeconomic forecasting and policy making, time series forecasting, and the econometrics of forecasting. Volume II contains 35 papers published between 1959 and 1998 that cover forecast evaluation, forecasting with leading indicators, forecasting in finance, and economic forecasting using surveys.