Oracles

Author: Donald N. Thompson
Publisher: Harvard Business Press
ISBN: 9781422183199
Release Date: 2012-05-22
Genre: Business & Economics

Why Prediction Markets Are Good for Business From selecting the lead actress in a Broadway musical, to predicting a crucial delay in the delivery of Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner months before the CEO knew about it, to accurately forecasting US presidential elections—prediction markets have realized some amazing successes by aggregating the wisdom of crowds. Until now, the potential for this unique approach has remained merely an interesting curiosity. But a handful of innovative organizations—GE, Google, Motorola, Microsoft, Eli Lily, even the CIA—has successfully tapped employee insights to change how business gets done. In Oracles, Don Thompson explains how these and other firms use prediction markets to make better decisions, describing what could be the origins of a social revolution. Thompson shows how prediction markets can: • draw on the hidden knowledge of every employee • tap the “intellectual bandwidth” of retired employees • replace surveys • substitute for endless meetings By showing successes and failures of real organizations, and identifying the common roadblocks they’ve overcome, Oracles offers a guide to begin testing expertise against the collective wisdom of employees and the market—all to the benefit of their bottom line.

Predicting Turning Points in the Interest Rate Cycle RLE Business Cycles

Author: James W. Coons
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 9781317498643
Release Date: 2015-03-24
Genre: Business & Economics

Originally published in 1994 and the recipient of the Stonier Library Award, this volume evaluates an alternative approach – the sequential filter- to managing the uncertainty inherent in the future course of the interest rate cycle. The specific hypothesis is that the sequential filter can produce valuable signals of cyclical peaks and troughs in interest rates. The analysis focusses on US interest rates from April 1953 to December 1988.

Predicting movie ratings and recommender systems

Author: Arkadiusz Paterek
Publisher: Arkadiusz Paterek
ISBN:
Release Date: 2012-06-19
Genre: Mathematics

A 195-page monograph by a top-1% Netflix Prize contestant. Learn about the famous machine learning competition. Improve your machine learning skills. Learn how to build recommender systems. What's inside:introduction to predictive modeling,a comprehensive summary of the Netflix Prize, the most known machine learning competition, with a $1M prize,detailed description of a top-50 Netflix Prize solution predicting movie ratings,summary of the most important methods published - RMSE's from different papers listed and grouped in one place,detailed analysis of matrix factorizations / regularized SVD,how to interpret the factorization results - new, most informative movie genres,how to adapt the algorithms developed for the Netflix Prize to calculate good quality personalized recommendations,dealing with the cold-start: simple content-based augmentation,description of two rating-based recommender systems,commentary on everything: novel and unique insights, know-how from over 9 years of practicing and analysing predictive modeling.

Predicting the Next President

Author: Allan J. Lichtman
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers
ISBN: 9781442212121
Release Date: 2011-12-16
Genre: Political Science

In Predicting the Next President political analyst and historian Allan J. Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or “keys” (four political, seven performance, and two personality), that determine the outcome of presidential elections.

Turn taking in human communicative interaction

Author: Judith Holler
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
ISBN: 9782889198252
Release Date: 2016-05-09
Genre: Conversation

The core use of language is in face-to-face conversation. This is characterized by rapid turn-taking. This turn-taking poses a number central puzzles for the psychology of language. Consider, for example, that in large corpora the gap between turns is on the order of 100 to 300 ms, but the latencies involved in language production require minimally between 600 ms (for a single word) or 1500 ms (for as simple sentence). This implies that participants in conversation are predicting the ends of the incoming turn and preparing in advance. But how is this done? What aspects of this prediction are done when? What happens when the prediction is wrong? What stops participants coming in too early? If the system is running on prediction, why is there consistently a mode of 100 to 300 ms in response time? The timing puzzle raises further puzzles: it seems that comprehension must run parallel with the preparation for production, but it has been presumed that there are strict cognitive limitations on more than one central process running at a time. How is this bottleneck overcome? Far from being 'easy' as some psychologists have suggested, conversation may be one of the most demanding cognitive tasks in our everyday lives. Further questions naturally arise: how do children learn to master this demanding task, and what is the developmental trajectory in this domain? Research shows that aspects of turn-taking, such as its timing, are remarkably stable across languages and cultures, but the word order of languages varies enormously. How then does prediction of the incoming turn work when the verb (often the informational nugget in a clause) is at the end? Conversely, how can production work fast enough in languages that have the verb at the beginning, thereby requiring early planning of the whole clause? What happens when one changes modality, as in sign languages – with the loss of channel constraints is turn-taking much freer? And what about face-to-face communication amongst hearing individuals – do gestures, gaze, and other body behaviors facilitate turn-taking? One can also ask the phylogenetic question: how did such a system evolve? There seem to be parallels (analogies) in duetting bird species, and in a variety of monkey species, but there is little evidence of anything like this among the great apes. All this constitutes a neglected set of problems at the heart of the psychology of language and of the language sciences. This Research Topic contributes to advancing our understanding of these problems by summarizing recent work from psycholinguists, developmental psychologists, students of dialog and conversation analysis, linguists, phoneticians, and comparative ethologists.

Reason and Prediction

Author: Simon Blackburn
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 0521087422
Release Date: 1973-02-08
Genre: Philosophy

An original study of the philosophical problems associated with inductive reasoning. Like most of the main questions in epistemology, the classical problem of induction arises from doubts about a mode of inference used to justify some of our most familiar and pervasive beliefs. The experience of each individual is limited and fragmentary, yet the scope of our beliefs is much wider; and it is the relation between belief and experience, in particular the belief that the future will in some respects resemble the past and the unobserved the observed, which forms the subject of this book. Dr Blackburn's first aim is to state the problem of induction properly, to show that there does exist a genuine problem immune to the solutions in vogue at present, yet no tin principle insoluble. He gives an extended and original account of the concept of a reason and goes on to discuss prediction. In the end Dr Blackburn produces a rationale for belief in certain short-term predictions based on his reinterpretation of the classical principle of indifference. He claims that a justification for induction can be found along the lines he has suggested and must indeed be found there if anywhere.

21st Century Economics A Reference Handbook

Author: Rhona C. Free
Publisher: SAGE
ISBN: 9781412961424
Release Date: 2010-05-14
Genre: Business & Economics

Interest in economics is at an all-time high. Among the challenges facing the nation is an economy with rapidly rising unemployment, failures of major businesses and industries, and continued dependence on oil with its wildly fluctuating price. Americans are debating the proper role of the government in company bailouts, the effectiveness of tax cuts versus increased government spending to stimulate the economy, and potential effects of deflation. Economists have dealt with such questions for generations, but they have taken on new meaning and significance. Tackling these questions and encompassing analysis of traditional economic theory and topics as well as those that economists have only more recently addressed, 21st Century Economics: A Reference Handbook is intended to meet the needs of several types of readers. Undergraduate students preparing for exams will find summaries of theory and models in key areas of micro and macroeconomics. Readers interested in learning about economic analysis of an issue as well students embarking on research projects will find introductions to relevant theory and empirical evidence. And economists seeking to learn about extensions of analysis into new areas or about new approaches will benefit from chapters that introduce cutting-edge topics. To make the book accessible to undergraduate students, models have been presented only in graphical format (minimal calculus) and empirical evidence has been summarized in ways that do not require much background in statistics or econometrics. It is thereby hoped that chapters will provide both crucial information and inspiration in a non-threatening, highly readable format.

Multimodality Interaction and Turn taking in Mandarin Conversation

Author: Xiaoting Li
Publisher: John Benjamins Publishing Company
ISBN: 9789027270535
Release Date: 2014-07-17
Genre: Language Arts & Disciplines

One major feature of conversation is that people take turns to speak. Based on audio and video recordings of naturally-occurring Mandarin conversation, this book explores the role of syntax, prosody, body movements as well as their interplay in turn organization in the temporal unfolding of action and interaction. Adopting the methodology of interactional linguistics, this book offers a fine-grained analysis of the three multimodal resources and the sequential environments in which they appear. It demonstrates that syntax, prosody and body movements not only converge but also diverge in projecting possible turn completion. As one of the few systematic studies of multimodality in Mandarin interaction, this book will be of interest to researchers in Chinese linguistics, interactional linguistics, conversation analysis, and multimodal analysis.

The Natural and the Artefactual

Author: Keekok Lee
Publisher: Lexington Books
ISBN: 0739100610
Release Date: 1999-01-01
Genre: Nature

In this book, philosopher Keekok Lee challenges one of the central assumptions of contemporary environmentalism: that if we could reduce or eliminate pollution we could 'save' the planet without unduly disrupting our modern, industrialized societies. Lee argues instead that the process of modernization, with its attendant emphasis on technological innovation, has fundamentally transformed 'nature' into just another manmade 'artefact.' Ultimately, what needs to be determined is if nature has value above and beyond human considerations, whether aesthetic, spiritual, or biological. This provocative book attempts to reconfigure environmental ethics, positing the existence of two separate ontological categories the 'natural' and the 'artefactual.' Natural entities, be they organisms or inert matter, are 'morally considerable' because they possess the ontological value of independence, whereas artefacts are created by humans expressly to serve their own interests and ends."

Bioinformatics Methods and Protocols

Author: Stephen Misener
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9781592591923
Release Date: 1999
Genre: Computers

In Bioinformatics: Methods and Protocols, hands-on users and experts survey the key biological software packages, offering useful tips and an overview of current developments. Among the sequence analysis systems reviewed are GCG, Omiga, MacVector, DNASTAR, PepTool, GeneTool, and Staden. Molecular biology software includes Genotator and sequence-similarity searching using FASTA, CLUSTAL multiple sequence alignment, and phylogenic analysis. Web-based resources are examined for primary sequence databases, primary sequence analysis methods, and clinical databases useful in molecular medicine. The book also includes a set of guidelines for designing and teaching an introductory bioinformatics course and numerous illustrative examples to teach the reader how to solve problems. Bioinformatics: Methods and Protocols offers to experienced and novice biologists a broad overview of the computational tools that have reshaped modern biology. It constitutes a gold-standard reference for today's scientists who wish to develop and hone their bioinformatics skills towards the discovery of new biological relationships.

Teaching about the Future

Author: P. Bishop
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 9781137020703
Release Date: 2012-06-26
Genre: Business & Economics

The faculty at the University of Houston's program in Futures Studies share their comprehensive, integrated approach to preparing foresight professionals and assisting others doing foresight projects. Provides an essential guide to developing classes on the future or even establishing whole degree programs.

Advanced Data Mining and Applications

Author: Shuigeng Zhou
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9783642355271
Release Date: 2012-12-09
Genre: Computers

This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Advanced Data Mining and Applications, ADMA 2012, held in Nanjing, China, in December 2012. The 32 regular papers and 32 short papers presented in this volume were carefully reviewed and selected from 168 submissions. They are organized in topical sections named: social media mining; clustering; machine learning: algorithms and applications; classification; prediction, regression and recognition; optimization and approximation; mining time series and streaming data; Web mining and semantic analysis; data mining applications; search and retrieval; information recommendation and hiding; outlier detection; topic modeling; and data cube computing.

Beating the Business Cycle

Author: Lakshman Achuthan
Publisher: Crown Business
ISBN: 0385512589
Release Date: 2004-05-18
Genre: Business & Economics

How can you make wise decisions about your company and your personal future when you have no idea where the economy is headed? The answer is, you can’t. But you can learn how to accurately predict turns in the economy so that you can see the road ahead. And BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE shows you how. In BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE, Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, the directors of the renowned Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) show how anyone can predict and profit from the inevitable booms and busts of the economy. Why should we believe them? Because while so many economists and financial gurus have failed to predict recessions in the past, ECRI’s forecasts are known for being uncannily accurate. The institute successfully predicted the U.S. recession of 2001 many months before the economists did; the 1990 recession and later recovery; and most recently, the weak U.S. recovery in 2002. ECRI is in constant demand by corporate America and the media. It is the “secret weapon” of companies from Disney to DuPont, the major fund managers, and many central banks. BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE is the first book to reveal how decision makers at all levels–managers, small business owners, and individuals–can see into the economy’s future when making key decisions. Should a large company search out new clients and build new factories or stores, or should it consider cost cutting and layoffs? Is it the right time for you to splurge on that luxury vacation or addition to your house, or would it be more prudent to cut back on big expenditures and save money for a rainy day? Written in an easy-to-understand, accessible style, BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE reveals which of the hundreds of economic indicators to trust and which ones to trash. It will give you the tools and confidence you need to make the right decisions at the right times–even when the rest of the investing and business world would persuade you otherwise. Whether you are a corporate manager or the owner of a small business, whether you have your money invested in stocks or in your home, BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE will give you the edge you need to trump the competition and stay ahead of the crowd.