Rationality for Mortals

Author: Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 9780199890125
Release Date: 2010-04-16
Genre: Philosophy

Gerd Gigerenzer's influential work examines the rationality of individuals not from the perspective of logic or probability, but from the point of view of adaptation to the real world of human behavior and interaction with the environment. Seen from this perspective, human behavior is more rational than it might otherwise appear. This work is extremely influential and has spawned an entire research program. This volume (which follows on a previous collection, Adaptive Thinking, also published by OUP) collects his most recent articles, looking at how people use "fast and frugal heuristics" to calculate probability and risk and make decisions. It includes a newly writen, substantial introduction, and the articles have been revised and updated where appropriate. This volume should appeal, like the earlier volumes, to a broad mixture of cognitive psychologists, philosophers, economists, and others who study decision making.

Simply Rational

Author: Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN: 9780199390076
Release Date: 2015
Genre: Psychology

Statistical illiteracy can have an enormously negative impact on decision making. This volume of collected papers brings together applied and theoretical research on risks and decision making across the fields of medicine, psychology, and economics. Collectively, the essays demonstrate why the frame in which statistics are communicated is essential for broader understanding and sound decision making, and that understanding risks and uncertainty has wide-reaching implications for daily life. Gerd Gigerenzer provides a lucid review and catalog of concrete instances of heuristics, or rules of thumb, that people and animals rely on to make decisions under uncertainty, explaining why these are very often more rational than probability models. After a critical look at behavioral theories that do not model actual psychological processes, the book concludes with a call for a "heuristic revolution" that will enable us to understand the ecological rationality of both statistics and heuristics, and bring a dose of sanity to the study of rationality.

STTS Think Smart Work Smarter

Author: Tremaine du Preez
Publisher: Marshall Cavendish International Asia Pte Ltd
ISBN: 9789814346702
Release Date: 2011-07-15
Genre: Self-Help

Your mind produces up to 70,000 thoughts a day—most of which are responsible for the decisions that you make. These decisions also determine your success both professionally and personally. However, we are taught what to think and not how to think. Information overload, short time frames and past failures can make even simple decisions and problems daunting. Do you lack confidence in your problem solving ability? Do you feel anxious when faced with a tough decision, or overwhelmed by lots of alternatives? Do you wish there was a formula for getting everything right? Executive coach and educator, Tremaine du Preez, fills this book with practical tools and effective techniques, all presented in a clear and practical manner. Making the right decision will be a breeze and no problem will be too difficult to handle when you are armed with these new and proven strategies.

Adaptive Thinking

Author: Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 9780190286767
Release Date: 2000-10-12
Genre: Philosophy

Where do new ideas come from? What is social intelligence? Why do social scientists perform mindless statistical rituals? This vital book is about rethinking rationality as adaptive thinking: to understand how minds cope with their environments, both ecological and social. Gerd Gigerenzer proposes and illustrates a bold new research program that investigates the psychology of rationality, introducing the concepts of ecological, bounded, and social rationality. His path-breaking collection takes research on thinking, social intelligence, creativity, and decision-making out of an ethereal world where the laws of logic and probability reign, and places it into our real world of human behavior and interaction. Adaptive Thinking is accessibly written for general readers with an interest in psychology, cognitive science, economics, sociology, philosophy, artificial intelligence, and animal behavior. It also teaches a practical audience, such as physicians, AIDS counselors, and experts in criminal law, how to understand and communicate uncertainties and risks.

Simply Rational

Author: Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN: 9780199390076
Release Date: 2015
Genre: Psychology

Statistical illiteracy can have an enormously negative impact on decision making. This volume of collected papers brings together applied and theoretical research on risks and decision making across the fields of medicine, psychology, and economics. Collectively, the essays demonstrate why the frame in which statistics are communicated is essential for broader understanding and sound decision making, and that understanding risks and uncertainty has wide-reaching implications for daily life. Gerd Gigerenzer provides a lucid review and catalog of concrete instances of heuristics, or rules of thumb, that people and animals rely on to make decisions under uncertainty, explaining why these are very often more rational than probability models. After a critical look at behavioral theories that do not model actual psychological processes, the book concludes with a call for a "heuristic revolution" that will enable us to understand the ecological rationality of both statistics and heuristics, and bring a dose of sanity to the study of rationality.

Reckoning with Risk

Author: Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher: Penguin UK
ISBN: 9780140297867
Release Date: 2003-04-24
Genre: Mathematics

Are ordinary people able to reason with risk? Detailing case histories and examples, this text presents readers with tools for understanding statistics. In so doing, it encourages us to overcome our innumeracy and empowers us to take responsibility for our own choices.

Calculated Risks

Author: Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
ISBN: 9780743254236
Release Date: 2002
Genre: Education

At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.

Risk Savvy

Author: Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher: Penguin
ISBN: 9780143127109
Release Date: 2015-03-31
Genre: Psychology

"First published in United States of America by Viking Penguin, a member of Penguin Group (USA) LLC, 2014."--Title page verso.

Bounded Rationality

Author: Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262571641
Release Date: 2002
Genre: Business & Economics

This book promotes bounded rationality as the key to understanding how real people make decisions.

Adaptive Thinking

Author: Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0198031173
Release Date: 2002-03-07
Genre: Psychology

Where do new ideas come from? What is social intelligence? Why do social scientists perform mindless statistical rituals? This vital book is about rethinking rationality as adaptive thinking: to understand how minds cope with their environments, both ecological and social. Gerd Gigerenzer proposes and illustrates a bold new research program that investigates the psychology of rationality, introducing the concepts of ecological, bounded, and social rationality. His path-breaking collection takes research on thinking, social intelligence, creativity, and decision-making out of an ethereal world where the laws of logic and probability reign, and places it into our real world of human behavior and interaction. Adaptive Thinking is accessibly written for general readers with an interest in psychology, cognitive science, economics, sociology, philosophy, artificial intelligence, and animal behavior. It also teaches a practical audience, such as physicians, AIDS counselors, and experts in criminal law, how to understand and communicate uncertainties and risks.

Natural Selection and Social Theory

Author: Robert Trivers
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN: 9780195130621
Release Date: 2002
Genre: Science

Robert Trivers is a pioneering figure in the field of sociobiology. For Natural Selection and Social Theory, he has selected eleven of his most influential papers, including several classic papers from the early 1970s on the evolution of reciprocal altruism, parent-offspring conflicts, and asymmetry in sexual selection, which helped to establish the centrality of sociobiology, as well as some of his later work on deceit in signalling, sex antagonistic genes, and imprinting. Trivers introduces each paper, setting them in their contemporary context, and critically evaluating them in the light of subsequent work and further developments. The result is a unique portrait of the intellectual development of sociobiology, with valuable insights for evolutionary biology, anthropology, and psychology.

The Logic of Adaptive Behavior

Author: M. Van
Publisher: IOS Press
ISBN: 9781586039691
Release Date: 2009-01-01
Genre: Computers

Learning and reasoning in large, structured, probabilistic worlds is at the heart of artificial intelligence. Markov decision processes have become the de facto standard in modeling and solving sequential decision making problems under uncertainty. Many efficient reinforcement learning and dynamic programming techniques exist that can solve such problems. Until recently, the representational state-of-the-art in this field was based on propositional representations.

The Foundations of Behavioral Economic Analysis

Author: Sanjit Dhami
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 9780198715528
Release Date: 2016-10-06
Genre:

This is the first definitive introduction to behavioral economics aimed at advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students. Authoritative, cutting edge, yet accessible, it guides the reader through theory and evidence, providing engaging and relevant applications throughout. It is divided into nine parts and 24 chapters: Part I is on behavioral economics of risk, uncertainty, and ambiguity. The evidence against expected utility theory is examined, and the behavioral response is outlined; the best empirically supported theory is prospect theory. Part II considers other-regarding preferences. The evidence from experimental games on human sociality is given, followed by models and applications of inequity aversion, intentions based reciprocity, conditional cooperation, human virtues, and social identity. Part III is on time discounting. It considers the evidence against the exponential discounted utility model and describes several behavioral models such as hyperbolic discounting, attribute based models and the reference time theory. Part IV describes the evidence on classical game theory and considers several models of behavioral game theory, including level-k and cognitive hierarchy models, quantal response equilibrium, and psychological game theory. Part V considers behavioral models of learning that include evolutionary game theory, classical models of learning, experience weighted attraction model, learning direction theory, and stochastic social dynamics. Part VI studies the role of emotions; among other topics it considers projection bias, temptation preferences, happiness economics, and interaction between emotions and cognition. Part VII considers bounded rationality. The three main topics considered are judgment heuristics and biases, mental accounting, and behavioral finance. Part VIII considers behavioral welfare economics; the main topics are soft paternalism, and choice-based measures of welfare. Finally, Part IX gives an abbreviated taster course in neuroeconomics.

Religion in Human Evolution

Author: Robert N. Bellah
Publisher: Harvard University Press
ISBN: 9780674063099
Release Date: 2011-09-15
Genre: Religion

This ambitious book probes our biological past to discover the kinds of lives that human beings have imagined were worth living. Bellah’s theory goes deep into cultural and genetic evolution to identify a range of capacities (communal dancing, storytelling, theorizing) whose emergence made religious development possible in the first millennium BCE.