Since 1975, The Analysis of Time Series: An Introduction has introduced legions of statistics students and researchers to the theory and practice of time series analysis. With each successive edition, bestselling author Chris Chatfield has honed and refined his presentation, updated the material to reflect advances in the field, and presented interesting new data sets. The sixth edition is no exception. It provides an accessible, comprehensive introduction to the theory and practice of time series analysis. The treatment covers a wide range of topics, including ARIMA probability models, forecasting methods, spectral analysis, linear systems, state-space models, and the Kalman filter. It also addresses nonlinear, multivariate, and long-memory models. The author has carefully updated each chapter, added new discussions, incorporated new datasets, and made those datasets available for download from www.crcpress.com. A free online appendix on time series analysis using R can be accessed at http://people.bath.ac.uk/mascc/TSA.usingR.doc. Highlights of the Sixth Edition: A new section on handling real data New discussion on prediction intervals A completely revised and restructured chapter on more advanced topics, with new material on the aggregation of time series, analyzing time series in finance, and discrete-valued time series A new chapter of examples and practical advice Thorough updates and revisions throughout the text that reflect recent developments and dramatic changes in computing practices over the last few years The analysis of time series can be a difficult topic, but as this book has demonstrated for two-and-a-half decades, it does not have to be daunting. The accessibility, polished presentation, and broad coverage of The Analysis of Time Series make it simply the best introduction to the subject available.
Author: James S. Hodges
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date: 2016-04-19
A First Step toward a Unified Theory of Richly Parameterized Linear Models Using mixed linear models to analyze data often leads to results that are mysterious, inconvenient, or wrong. Further compounding the problem, statisticians lack a cohesive resource to acquire a systematic, theory-based understanding of models with random effects. Richly Parameterized Linear Models: Additive, Time Series, and Spatial Models Using Random Effects takes a first step in developing a full theory of richly parameterized models, which would allow statisticians to better understand their analysis results. The author examines what is known and unknown about mixed linear models and identifies research opportunities. The first two parts of the book cover an existing syntax for unifying models with random effects. The text explains how richly parameterized models can be expressed as mixed linear models and analyzed using conventional and Bayesian methods. In the last two parts, the author discusses oddities that can arise when analyzing data using these models. He presents ways to detect problems and, when possible, shows how to mitigate or avoid them. The book adapts ideas from linear model theory and then goes beyond that theory by examining the information in the data about the mixed linear model’s covariance matrices. Each chapter ends with two sets of exercises. Conventional problems encourage readers to practice with the algebraic methods and open questions motivate readers to research further. Supporting materials, including datasets for most of the examples analyzed, are available on the author’s website.
Based on the authors’ lecture notes, Introduction to the Theory of Statistical Inference presents concise yet complete coverage of statistical inference theory, focusing on the fundamental classical principles. Suitable for a second-semester undergraduate course on statistical inference, the book offers proofs to support the mathematics. It illustrates core concepts using cartoons and provides solutions to all examples and problems. Highlights Basic notations and ideas of statistical inference are explained in a mathematically rigorous, but understandable, form Classroom-tested and designed for students of mathematical statistics Examples, applications of the general theory to special cases, exercises, and figures provide a deeper insight into the material Solutions provided for problems formulated at the end of each chapter Combines the theoretical basis of statistical inference with a useful applied toolbox that includes linear models Theoretical, difficult, or frequently misunderstood problems are marked The book is aimed at advanced undergraduate students, graduate students in mathematics and statistics, and theoretically-interested students from other disciplines. Results are presented as theorems and corollaries. All theorems are proven and important statements are formulated as guidelines in prose. With its multipronged and student-tested approach, this book is an excellent introduction to the theory of statistical inference.
Author: Joseph K. Blitzstein
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date: 2014-07-24
Developed from celebrated Harvard statistics lectures, Introduction to Probability provides essential language and tools for understanding statistics, randomness, and uncertainty. The book explores a wide variety of applications and examples, ranging from coincidences and paradoxes to Google PageRank and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Additional application areas explored include genetics, medicine, computer science, and information theory. The print book version includes a code that provides free access to an eBook version. The authors present the material in an accessible style and motivate concepts using real-world examples. Throughout, they use stories to uncover connections between the fundamental distributions in statistics and conditioning to reduce complicated problems to manageable pieces. The book includes many intuitive explanations, diagrams, and practice problems. Each chapter ends with a section showing how to perform relevant simulations and calculations in R, a free statistical software environment.
Author: Deborah J. Rumsey
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date: 2013-03-25
Es gibt Qualen, verdammte Qualen und Statistik, so sehen es viele Studenten. Mit ?Statistik II f?r Dummies? lernen Sie so leicht wie m?glich. Deborah Rumsey zeigt Ihnen, wie Sie Varianzanalysen und Chi-Quadrat-Test machen, wie Sie mit Regressionen arbeiten, ein Modell erstellen, Korrelationen bilden und vieles mehr. So lernen Sie die Methoden, die Sie brauchen, und erhalten das Handwerkszeug, erfolgreich Ihre Statistikpr?fungen zu bestehen.
With a focus on analyzing and modeling linear dynamic systems using statistical methods, Time Series Analysis formulates various linear models, discusses their theoretical characteristics, and explores the connections among stochastic dynamic models. Emphasizing the time domain description, the author presents theorems to highlight the most important results, proofs to clarify some results, and problems to illustrate the use of the results for modeling real-life phenomena. The book first provides the formulas and methods needed to adapt a second-order approach for characterizing random variables as well as introduces regression methods and models, including the general linear model. It subsequently covers linear dynamic deterministic systems, stochastic processes, time domain methods where the autocorrelation function is key to identification, spectral analysis, transfer-function models, and the multivariate linear process. The text also describes state space models and recursive and adaptivemethods. The final chapter examines a host of practical problems, including the predictions of wind power production and the consumption of medicine, a scheduling system for oil delivery, and the adaptive modeling of interest rates. Concentrating on the linear aspect of this subject, Time Series Analysis provides an accessible yet thorough introduction to the methods for modeling linear stochastic systems. It will help you understand the relationship between linear dynamic systems and linear stochastic processes.
Survival Analysis Using S: Analysis of Time-to-Event Data is designed as a text for a one-semester or one-quarter course in survival analysis for upper-level or graduate students in statistics, biostatistics, and epidemiology. Prerequisites are a standard pre-calculus first course in probability and statistics, and a course in applied linear regression models. No prior knowledge of S or R is assumed. A wide choice of exercises is included, some intended for more advanced students with a first course in mathematical statistics. The authors emphasize parametric log-linear models, while also detailing nonparametric procedures along with model building and data diagnostics. Medical and public health researchers will find the discussion of cut point analysis with bootstrap validation, competing risks and the cumulative incidence estimator, and the analysis of left-truncated and right-censored data invaluable. The bootstrap procedure checks robustness of cut point analysis and determines cut point(s). In a chapter written by Stephen Portnoy, censored regression quantiles - a new nonparametric regression methodology (2003) - is developed to identify important forms of population heterogeneity and to detect departures from traditional Cox models. By generalizing the Kaplan-Meier estimator to regression models for conditional quantiles, this methods provides a valuable complement to traditional Cox proportional hazards approaches.
Based on a popular course taught by the late Gian-Carlo Rota of MIT, with many new topics covered as well, Introduction to Probability with R presents R programs and animations to provide an intuitive yet rigorous understanding of how to model natural phenomena from a probabilistic point of view. Although the R programs are small in length, they are just as sophisticated and powerful as longer programs in other languages. This brevity makes it easy for students to become proficient in R. This calculus-based introduction organizes the material around key themes. One of the most important themes centers on viewing probability as a way to look at the world, helping students think and reason probabilistically. The text also shows how to combine and link stochastic processes to form more complex processes that are better models of natural phenomena. In addition, it presents a unified treatment of transforms, such as Laplace, Fourier, and z; the foundations of fundamental stochastic processes using entropy and information; and an introduction to Markov chains from various viewpoints. Each chapter includes a short biographical note about a contributor to probability theory, exercises, and selected answers. The book has an accompanying website with more information.
Author: John F. Monahan
Publisher: Chapman and Hall/CRC
Release Date: 2008-03-31
A Primer on Linear Models presents a unified, thorough, and rigorous development of the theory behind the statistical methodology of regression and analysis of variance (ANOVA). It seamlessly incorporates these concepts using non-full-rank design matrices and emphasizes the exact, finite sample theory supporting common statistical methods. With coverage steadily progressing in complexity, the text first provides examples of the general linear model, including multiple regression models, one-way ANOVA, mixed-effects models, and time series models. It then introduces the basic algebra and geometry of the linear least squares problem, before delving into estimability and the Gauss–Markov model. After presenting the statistical tools of hypothesis tests and confidence intervals, the author analyzes mixed models, such as two-way mixed ANOVA, and the multivariate linear model. The appendices review linear algebra fundamentals and results as well as Lagrange multipliers. This book enables complete comprehension of the material by taking a general, unifying approach to the theory, fundamentals, and exact results of linear models.
Understanding spatial statistics requires tools from applied and mathematical statistics, linear model theory, regression, time series, and stochastic processes. It also requires a mindset that focuses on the unique characteristics of spatial data and the development of specialized analytical tools designed explicitly for spatial data analysis. Statistical Methods for Spatial Data Analysis answers the demand for a text that incorporates all of these factors by presenting a balanced exposition that explores both the theoretical foundations of the field of spatial statistics as well as practical methods for the analysis of spatial data. This book is a comprehensive and illustrative treatment of basic statistical theory and methods for spatial data analysis, employing a model-based and frequentist approach that emphasizes the spatial domain. It introduces essential tools and approaches including: measures of autocorrelation and their role in data analysis; the background and theoretical framework supporting random fields; the analysis of mapped spatial point patterns; estimation and modeling of the covariance function and semivariogram; a comprehensive treatment of spatial analysis in the spectral domain; and spatial prediction and kriging. The volume also delivers a thorough analysis of spatial regression, providing a detailed development of linear models with uncorrelated errors, linear models with spatially-correlated errors and generalized linear mixed models for spatial data. It succinctly discusses Bayesian hierarchical models and concludes with reviews on simulating random fields, non-stationary covariance, and spatio-temporal processes. Additional material on the CRC Press website supplements the content of this book. The site provides data sets used as examples in the text, software code that can be used to implement many of the principal methods described and illustrated, and updates to the text itself.