The Black Swan Second Edition

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: Random House
ISBN: 0679604189
Release Date: 2010-05-11
Genre: Business & Economics

The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb “The most prophetic voice of all.”—GQ Praise for The Black Swan “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London) “A masterpiece.”—Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail “Idiosyncratically brilliant.”—Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times “The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.”—Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate “[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.”—The Wall Street Journal “Hugely enjoyable—compelling . . . easy to dip into.”—Financial Times “Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.”—The New York Times Book Review From the Hardcover edition.

The Bed of Procrustes

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: Random House
ISBN: 9780679643685
Release Date: 2010-11-30
Genre: Business & Economics

With fifty percent more material than the hardcover, this expanded edition of The Bed of Procrustes is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, and Antifragile. By the author of the modern classic The Black Swan, this collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses his major ideas in ways you least expect. The Bed of Procrustes takes its title from Greek mythology: the story of a man who made his visitors fit his bed to perfection by either stretching them or cutting their limbs. It represents Taleb’s view of modern civilization’s hubristic side effects—modifying humans to satisfy technology, blaming reality for not fitting economic models, inventing diseases to sell drugs, defining intelligence as what can be tested in a classroom, and convincing people that employment is not slavery. Playful and irreverent, these aphorisms will surprise you by exposing self-delusions you have been living with but never recognized. With a rare combination of pointed wit and potent wisdom, Taleb plows through human illusions, contrasting the classical values of courage, elegance, and erudition against the modern diseases of nerdiness, philistinism, and phoniness. “Taleb’s crystalline nuggets of thought stand alone like esoteric poems.”—Financial Times From the Trade Paperback edition.

Fooled by Randomness

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: Random House
ISBN: 1588367673
Release Date: 2008-10-14
Genre: Business & Economics

Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes. “[Taleb is] Wall Street’s principal dissident. . . . [Fooled By Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-nine theses were to the Catholic Church.” –Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker Finally in paperback, the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about the markets and the world.This book is about luck: more precisely how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of business–Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, iconoclastic, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in all of our lives. From the Trade Paperback edition.

Antifragile

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: Random House Incorporated
ISBN: 9780812979688
Release Date: 2014
Genre: Business & Economics

Shares insights into how adversity can bring out the best in individuals and communities, drawing on multiple disciplines to consider such topics as the superiority of city states over nation states and the drawbacks of debt.

Skin in the Game

Author: John Hammergren
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470330295
Release Date: 2008-03-31
Genre: Business & Economics

While the American health care system has consistently been criticized for its noticeable detriments, few have taken the time to recognize the significant benefits and potential of this system. But with Skin in the Game, authors John Hammergren and Phil Harkins provide a comprehensive overview of the history of our health care system, an explanation of its current state, and a picture of the great strides that they see being made in the near future.

Summary of The Black Swan

Author: Instaread Summaries
Publisher: Idreambooks
ISBN: 194525193X
Release Date: 2016-04-05
Genre: Mathematics

Inside this Instaread of The Black Swan:* Overview of the book* Important People* Key Takeaways* Analysis of Key Takeaways

Skin in the Game

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780425284629
Release Date: 2018
Genre: Business & Economics

Discusses how the willingness to accept one's own risks is an essential attribute for defining what it means to understand the world, succeed in life, contribute to a fair and just society, and influence others.

The Black Swan

Author: Raphael Sabatini
Publisher: House of Stratus
ISBN: 9780755152711
Release Date: 2014-11-30
Genre: Fiction

When Priscilla Harradine travels back to England on the Centaur she has no cause to expect her journey will be remotely eventful. But also on board is Charles de Bernis – a mysterious and intriguing buccaneer. Just as their friendship blossoms, a dark figure from de Bernis’ past emerges to propel them into a thrilling and perilous adventure.

Bayesian Inference in Statistical Analysis

Author: George E. P. Box
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9781118031445
Release Date: 2011-01-25
Genre: Mathematics

Its main objective is to examine the application and relevance of Bayes' theorem to problems that arise in scientific investigation in which inferences must be made regarding parameter values about which little is known a priori. Begins with a discussion of some important general aspects of the Bayesian approach such as the choice of prior distribution, particularly noninformative prior distribution, the problem of nuisance parameters and the role of sufficient statistics, followed by many standard problems concerned with the comparison of location and scale parameters. The main thrust is an investigation of questions with appropriate analysis of mathematical results which are illustrated with numerical examples, providing evidence of the value of the Bayesian approach.

Everydata

Author: John H. Johnson
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 9781351861830
Release Date: 2016-10-14
Genre: Business & Economics

While everyone is talking about "big data," the truth is that understanding the "little data"--the stats that underlie newspaper headlines, stock reports, weather forecasts, and so on--is what helps you make smarter decisions at work, at home, and in every aspect of your life. The average person consumes approximately 30 gigabytes of data every single day, but has no idea how to interpret it correctly. EVERYDATA explains, through the eyes of an expert economist and statistician, how to decipher the small bytes of data we consume in a day. EVERYDATA is filled with countless examples of people misconstruing data--with results that range from merely frustrating to catastrophic: The space shuttle Challenger exploded in part because the engineers were reviewing a limited sample set. Millions of women avoid caffeine during pregnancy because they interpret correlation as causation. Attorneys faced a $1 billion jury verdict because of outlier data. Each chapter highlights one commonly misunderstood data concept, using both realworld and hypothetical examples from a wide range of topics, including business, politics, advertising, law, engineering, retail, parenting, and more. You'll find the answer to the question--"Now what?"--along with concrete ways you can use this information to immediately start making smarter decisions, today and every day.

Caveat Emptor

Author: Ken Perenyi
Publisher: Open Road Media
ISBN: 9781453265291
Release Date: 2012-08-15
Genre: Biography & Autobiography

The astonishing true story of America’s most accomplished art forger: a kid from New Jersey who became a master, fooling experts and eluding the FBI for thirty years. Ten years ago, an FBI investigation in conjunction with the U.S. Attorney’s Office in the Southern District of New York was about to expose a scandal in the art world that would have been front-page news in New York and London. After a trail of fake paintings of astonishing quality led federal agents to art dealers, renowned experts, and the major auction houses, the investigation inexplicably ended, despite an abundance of evidence collected. The case was closed and the FBI file was marked “exempt from public disclosure.” Now that the statute of limitations on these crimes has expired and the case appears hermetically sealed shut by the FBI, this book, Caveat Emptor, is Ken Perenyi’s confession. It is the story, in detail, of how he pulled it all off. Glamorous stories of art-world scandal have always captured the public imagination. However, not since Clifford Irving’s 1969 bestselling Fake has there been a story at all like this one. Caveat Emptor is unique in that it is the first and only book by and about America’s first and only great art forger. And unlike other forgers, Perenyi produced no paper trail, no fake provenance whatsoever; he let the paintings speak for themselves. And that they did, routinely mesmerizing the experts in mere seconds. In the tradition of Frank Abagnale’s Catch Me If You Can, and certain to be a bombshell for the major international auction houses and galleries, here is the story of America’s greatest art forger.

Snowball in a Blizzard

Author: Steven Hatch
Publisher: Basic Books
ISBN: 9780465098576
Release Date: 2016-02-23
Genre: Medical

There’s a running joke among radiologists: finding a tumor in a mammogram is akin to finding a snowball in a blizzard. A bit of medical gallows humor, this simile illustrates the difficulties of finding signals (the snowball) against a background of noise (the blizzard). Doctors are faced with similar difficulties every day when sifting through piles of data from blood tests to X-rays to endless lists of patient symptoms. Diagnoses are often just educated guesses, and prognoses less certain still. There is a significant amount of uncertainty in the daily practice of medicine, resulting in confusion and potentially deadly complications. Dr. Steven Hatch argues that instead of ignoring this uncertainty, we should embrace it. By digging deeply into a number of rancorous controversies, from breast cancer screening to blood pressure management, Hatch shows us how medicine can fail—sometimes spectacularly—when patients and doctors alike place too much faith in modern medical technology. The key to good health might lie in the ability to recognize the hype created by so many medical reports, sense when to push a physician for more testing, or resist a physician’s enthusiasm when unnecessary tests or treatments are being offered. Both humbling and empowering, Snowball in a Blizzard lays bare the inescapable murkiness that permeates the theory and practice of modern medicine. Essential reading for physicians and patients alike, this book shows how, by recognizing rather than denying that uncertainty, we can all make better health decisions.

The Game Changer

Author: Lafley
Publisher: Penguin Books India
ISBN: 0143065173
Release Date:
Genre:

&Lsquo;A.G. Lafley Has Made Procter And Gamble Great Again&Rsquo;&Mdash;Economist &Lsquo;Ram Charan Is The Most Influential Consultant Alive&Rsquo;&Mdash;Fortune Magazine How To Increase And Sustain Organic Revenue And Profit Growth&Mdash;Whether You&Rsquo;Re Running An Entire Company Or In Your First Management Job. Over The Past Seven Years, Procter &Amp; Gamble Has Tripled Profits; Hugely Improved Organic Revenue Growth, Cash Flow, And Operating Margins; And Significantly Boosted Dividends. How? A. G. Lafley And His Leadership Team Have Integrated Innovation Into Everything Procter &Amp; Gamble Does&Mdash;Creating New Customers And New Markets. Through Eye-Opening Stories A. G. Lafley And Ram Charan Show How P&Amp;G And Companies Such As Nokia, Lego, And Ge Have Become Game-Changers. Their Inspiring Lessons Will Help You Achieve Higher Growth And Higher Margins, Tap In To Abundant Creativity Outside Your Business, Manage Risk And Integrate Innovation Into Your Decision-Making. In A World Of Unprecedented Change And Competitiveness, Innovation Is The Best&Mdash;And Arguably The Only&Mdash;Way To Win. Innovation Is Not A Separate Activity, But The Job Of Everyone In A Leadership Position And The Integral Driving Force For Any Business That Wants To Grow And Succeed. This Is A Game-Changing Book That Helps You Redefine Your Leadership.

Incerto 4 Book Bundle

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Publisher: Random House
ISBN: 9780812997699
Release Date: 2016-01-26
Genre: Business & Economics

Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series is an investigation of luck, uncertainty, probability, opacity, human error, risk, disorder, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand, in nonoverlapping and standalone books. All four volumes—Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and the expanded edition of The Bed of Procrustes, updated with more than 50 percent new material—are now together in one ebook bundle. ANTIFRAGILE “Startling . . . richly crammed with insights, stories, fine phrases and intriguing asides.”—The Wall Street Journal Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, many things in life benefit from disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls “antifragile” is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better. What is crucial is that the antifragile loves errors, as it incurs small harm and large benefits from them. Spanning politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine in an interdisciplinary and erudite style, Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world. THE BLACK SWAN “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London) A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows that black swan events underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them. FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS “[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church.”—Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? Fooled by Randomness is about luck: more precisely, about how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill—the markets—Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in our lives. THE BED OF PROCRUSTES “Taleb’s crystalline nuggets of thought stand alone like esoteric poems.”—Financial Times This collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses Taleb’s major ideas in ways you least expect. The Bed of Procrustes takes its title from Greek mythology: the story of a man who made his visitors fit his bed to perfection by either stretching them or cutting their limbs. With a rare combination of pointed wit and potent wisdom, Taleb plows through human illusions, contrasting the classical views of courage, elegance, and erudition against the modern diseases of nerdiness, philistinism, and phoniness.

Perilous Interventions The Security Council and the Politics of Chaos

Author: Hardeep Singh Puri
Publisher: Harper Collins
ISBN: 9789351777601
Release Date: 2016-08-10
Genre: Political Science

It was an exclusive lunch at a high-end Manhattan restaurant on 7 March 2011. United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and his entire A-team were present. It soon became clear that the main item on the menu was Libya, where it was alleged that the forces of Muammar Gaddafi were rapidly advancing on the rebel stronghold of Benghazi to crush all opposition. Over an $80 per head lunch, a small group of the world's most important diplomats from countries represented on the Security Council discussed the possibility of the use of force, ostensibly to protect civilians, but in reality to effect regime change. As things turned out, the Council's authorization came only ten days later, and all hell broke loose. Hardeep Singh Puri, India's envoy to the UN at the time, now reveals the Council's whimsical decision-making and the ill-thought-out itch to intervene on the part of some of its permanent members. In contrast, on Syria-which too was unravelling at the same time-the Libyan experience and internal differences within the Council led to a complete policy paralysis. The result, made worse by the earlier intervention in Iraq, has been the biggest refugee crisis since World War II and the creation of the ISIS. Perilous Interventions shows how some recent instances of the use of force-not just in Libya and Syria but also in Yemen and Crimea, as well as India's misadventure in Sri Lanka in the 1980s-have gone disastrously wrong. He focuses on the syndrome of intervening nations turning away from the scene once their vested interests have been achieved, as in the case of Iraq, where more than 100,000 civilians have died since the war began in 2003. He also highlights India's key role in warning against interventions and attempts at regime change. Treading the path of reason and caution, Perilous Interventions calls out world powers on their misdeeds and cries for a reform of the global political order.