The Next 100 Years

Author: George Friedman
Publisher: Black Inc.
ISBN: 9781921825545
Release Date: 2010-03
Genre: Business & Economics

"Predictions have made George Friedman a hot property these days." -The Wall Street Journal In The Next 100 Years, George Friedman offers a lucid, highly readable forecast of the changes we can expect around the world during the twenty-first century. He explains where and why future wars will erupt (and how they will be fought), which nations will gain and lose economic and political power, and how new technologies and cultural trends will alter the way we live in the new century. Drawing on history and geopolitical patterns dating back hundreds of years. Friedman shows that we are now, for the first time in half a millennium, at the dawn of a new era - with changes in store, including: * The US-Jihadist war will conclude - replaced by a second full-blown cold war with Russia. * China will undergo a major extended internal crisis, and Mexico will emerge as an important world power. * A new global war will unfold toward the middle of the century between the United States and an unexpected coalition from Eastern Europe, Eurasia and the Far East; but armies will be much smaller and wars will be less deadly. * Technology will focus on space - both for major military uses and for a dramatic new energy resource that will have radical environmental implications. Written with the keen insight and thoughtful analysis that has made George Friedman a renowned expert in geopolitics and forecasting, The Next 100 Years presents a fascinating picture of what lies ahead.

The Next Decade

Author: George Friedman
Publisher: Anchor
ISBN: 9780307476395
Release Date: 2012
Genre: Political Science

Makes predictions about the imminent challenges that will test America and the world of the near future, forecasting such events as an economic crisis in China and a transition from financial problems to labor shortages.

The Next Decade

Author: George Friedman
Publisher: Scribe Publications
ISBN: 1921753978
Release Date: 2011-05-30
Genre: Political Science

The author of the acclaimed New York Times bestseller The Next 100 Years now focuses his geopolitical forecasting acumen on the next decade and the imminent events and challenges that will test America and the world, specifically addressing the skills that will be required by the decade’s leaders. The next ten years will be a time of massive transition. The wars in the Islamic world will be subsiding, and terrorism will become something we learn to live with. China will be encountering its crisis. We will be moving from a time when financial crises dominate the world to a time when labour shortages will begin to do so. In The Next Decade, George Friedman offers a provocative and endlessly fascinating prognosis for the immediate future. Using Machiavelli’s The Prince as a model, Friedman focuses on the world’s leaders — particularly the American president — and, with his trusted geopolitical insight, analyses the complex chess game they will all have to play. The book also asks how to be a good president in a decade of extraordinary challenge, and puts the world’s leaders under a microscope to explain how they will arrive at the decisions they will make

America s Secret War

Author: George Friedman
Publisher: Anchor Books
ISBN: 9780767917858
Release Date: 2004
Genre: Political Science

A founder of a leading private intelligence company offers a geopolitical, inside analysis of the truth about America's true foreign policy in Afghanistan, Iraq, and other locations around the world, examining covert and overt efforts in the global war against terrorism, the unreported factors that led to the invasion of Iraq, and other important events. Reprint. 20,000 first printing.

Flashpoints

Author: George Friedman
Publisher: Scribe Publications
ISBN: 9781925113846
Release Date: 2015-02-26
Genre: Political Science

Europe is ready to explode. Where will the explosion take place and what will the damage be? This major new book from the bestselling author and geopolitical forecaster George Friedman presents a bold and provocative thesis about the likeliest locations for the coming eruptions. George Friedman forecasted coming global trends in The Next 100 Years and The Next Decade. Now, in Flashpoints, he zooms in on Europe and examines the dry tinder of the region: culture. Walking the faultlines that have existed here for centuries, Friedman inspects all the dormant social and political fissures still smouldering just beneath the continent’s surface, and identifies those likely to erupt first. The book begins with a fascinating history of the events leading up to the horrific wars that nearly tore apart Western civilisation, and shows how modern efforts to overcome Europe’s geopolitical tensions — including the formation of the European Union — have largely failed. Homing in on half a dozen pivotal locations, George Friedman gauges what the future holds, both in terms of conflict and also opportunity. Flashpoints details how events in Europe will affect the rest of the world — from USA to Russia, from China to Latin America — and reveals a new yet familiar political landscape in what is at once a gripping history lesson and a terrifying forecast of the potential devastation ahead. PRAISE FOR GEORGE FRIEDMAN ‘This nonacademic but erudite view of European history shows that the 20th century’s trauma of war and violence is not quite behind us … A thoughtful, uncluttered treatise considering Europe's intractable patterns of unemployment, immigration and racism.’ Kirkus ‘In this insightful examination of contemporary Europe, political scientist Friedman (Next Decade) challenges the view that the European Union and its neighbors have transcended the threat of violent conflict among nations … By dispassionately anatomizing the fears, aspirations, and interests of the key players, particularly a resurgent and resentful Russia, Friedman vividly describes a region where memories are long, perceived vulnerabilities are everywhere, and major threats have emerged rapidly and unexpectedly many times before.’ Publishers Weekly

The New North

Author: Laurence Smith
Publisher: Profile Books
ISBN: 9781847653123
Release Date: 2011-03-24
Genre: Political Science

The New North is a book that turns the world literally upside down. Analysing four key 'megatrends' - population growth and migration, natural resource demand, climate change and globalisation - UCLA professor Larry Smith projects a world that by mid-century will have shifted its political and economic axes radically to the north. The beneficiaries of this new order, based on a bonanza of oil, natural gas, minerals and plentiful water will be the Arctic regions of Russia, Alaska and Canada, and Scandinavia. Meanwhile countries closer to the equator will face water shortages, aging populations, crowded megacities and coastal flooding. Smith draws on geography, economics, history, earth and climate science, but what makes his arguments so compelling is that he has spent many months exploring the region, talking to people in once-inaccessible Arctic towns, noting their economies, politics and stories.

In 100 Years

Author: Ignacio Palacios-Huerta
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262026918
Release Date: 2014-01-03
Genre: Business & Economics

This pithy and engaging volume shows that economists may be better equipped to predict the future than science fiction writers. Economists' ideas, based on both theory and practice, reflect their knowledge of the laws of human interactions as well as years of experimentation and reflection. Although perhaps not as screenplay-ready as a work of fiction, these economists' predictions are ready for their close-ups. In this book, ten prominent economists -- including Nobel laureates and several likely laureates -- offer their ideas about the world of the twenty-second century. In scenarios that range from the optimistic to the guardedly gloomy, these thinkers consider such topics as the transformation of work and wages, the continuing increase in inequality, the economic rise of China and India, the endlessly repeating cycle of crisis and (projected) recovery, the benefits of technology, the economic consequences of political extremism, and the long-range effects of climate change. For example, Daron Acemoglu offers a thoughtful discussion of how trends of the last century -- including uneven growth, technological integration, and resource scarcity -- might translate into the next; 2013 Nobelist Robert Shiller provides an innovative view of future risk management methods using information technology; 2012 Nobelist Alvin Roth projects his theory of Matching Markets into the next century, focusing on schools, jobs, marriage and family, and medicine; 1987 Nobelist Robert Solow considers the shift away from remunerated labor, among other subjects; and Martin Weitzman raises the intriguing but alarming possibility of using geoengineering techniques to mitigate the nevitable effects of climate change. In a 1930 essay mentioned by several contributors, "Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren," John Maynard Keynes offered predictions that, read today, range from absolutely correct to spectacularly wrong. This book follows in Keynes's path, hoping, perhaps, to better his average.

The World in 2050

Author: Laurence C. Smith
Publisher: Dutton Adult
ISBN: 0525951814
Release Date: 2010
Genre: Social Science

Draws on the latest research to present a balanced forecast of mid-21st-century Earth, suggesting how climate change may actually benefit several countries, in a report that makes related predictions about future populations, politics and military engagements.

Geopolitics

Author: Saul Bernard Cohen
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers
ISBN: 9780742581548
Release Date: 2008-07-17
Genre: Political Science

Written by one of the world's leading political geographers, this fully revised and updated textbook examines the dramatic changes wrought by ideological and economic forces unleashed by the end of the Cold War. Saul Cohen considers these forces in the context of their human and physical settings and explores their geographical influence on foreign policy and international relations.

2052

Author: Jorgen Randers
Publisher: Chelsea Green Publishing
ISBN: 9781603584227
Release Date: 2012-06-13
Genre: Social Science

Forty years ago, The Limits to Growth study addressed the grand question of how humans would adapt to the physical limitations of planet Earth. It predicted that during the first half of the 21st century the ongoing growth in the human ecological footprint would stop-either through catastrophic "overshoot and collapse"-or through well-managed "peak and decline." So, where are we now? And what does our future look like? In the book 2052, Jorgen Randers, one of the coauthors of Limits to Growth, issues a progress report and makes a forecast for the next forty years. To do this, he asked dozens of experts to weigh in with their best predictions on how our economies, energy supplies, natural resources, climate, food, fisheries, militaries, political divisions, cities, psyches, and more will take shape in the coming decades. He then synthesized those scenarios into a global forecast of life as we will most likely know it in the years ahead. The good news: we will see impressive advances in resource efficiency, and an increasing focus on human well-being rather than on per capita income growth. But this change might not come as we expect. Future growth in population and GDP, for instance, will be constrained in surprising ways-by rapid fertility decline as result of increased urbanization, productivity decline as a result of social unrest, and continuing poverty among the poorest 2 billion world citizens. Runaway global warming, too, is likely. So, how do we prepare for the years ahead? With heart, fact, and wisdom, Randers guides us along a realistic path into the future and discusses what readers can do to ensure a better life for themselves and their children during the increasing turmoil of the next forty years.

Comparative Economic Transformations

Author: Yu-Shan Wu
Publisher: Stanford University Press
ISBN: 0804723885
Release Date: 1994
Genre: Business & Economics

This pathbreaking work attempts to understand China's economic policies by examining the political logic behind economic reforms in authoritarian, command-economy states from the wholly original perspective of property rights.

Taming Japan s Deflation

Author: Gene Park
Publisher: Cornell University Press
ISBN: 9781501728181
Release Date: 2018-11-15
Genre: Political Science

Bolder economic policy could have addressed the persistent bouts of deflation in post-bubble Japan, write Gene Park, Saori N. Katada, Giacomo Chiozza, and Yoshiko Kojo in Taming Japan's Deflation. Despite warnings from economists, intense political pressure, and well-articulated unconventional policy options to address this problem, Japan's central bank, the Bank of Japan (BOJ), resisted taking the bold actions that the authors believe would have significantly helped. With Prime Minister Abe Shinzo's return to power, Japan finally shifted course at the start of 2013 with the launch of Abenomics—an economic agenda to reflate the economy—and Abe's appointment of new leadership at the BOJ. As Taming Japan's Deflation shows, the BOJ's resistance to experimenting with bolder policy stemmed from entrenched policy ideas that were hostile to activist monetary policy. The authors explain how these policy ideas evolved over the course of the BOJ's long history and gained dominance because of the closed nature of the broader policy network. The explanatory power of policy ideas and networks suggests a basic inadequacy in the dominant framework for analysis of the politics of monetary policy derived from the literature on central bank independence. This approach privileges the interaction between political principals and their supposed agents, central bankers; but Taming Japan's Deflation shows clearly that central bankers' views, shaped by ideas and institutions, can be decisive in determining monetary policy. Through a combination of institutional analysis, quantitative empirical tests, in-depth case studies, and structured comparison of Japan with other countries, the authors show that, ultimately, the decision to adopt aggressive monetary policy depends largely on the bankers' established policy ideas and policy network.

Shaping the Next One Hundred Years

Author: Robert J. Lempert
Publisher: Rand Corporation
ISBN: 9780833034854
Release Date: 2003-07-18
Genre: Transportation

A sophisticated reader ought to view with great skepticism the prospect of answering questions about the long-term future. The checkered history of predicting the future-from the famous declarations that humans would never fly to the Limits to Growth study to claims about the "New Economy"-has dissuaded policymakers from considering the effects of their decisions more than a few months or years ahead. However, today's choices will significantly influence the course of the twenty-first century. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, may transform our ability to reason systematically about the long term. This report reviews traditional methods of grappling with the morrow, from narratives to scenario analysis, which fail to address the multiplicity of plausible long-term futures. The authors demonstrate a quantitative approach to long-term policy analysis (LTPA). Robust decision methods enable decisionmakers to examine a vast range of plausible futures and design near-term, often adaptive, strategies to be robust across them. Reframing the question "What will the long-term future bring?" as "How can we choose actions today that will be consistent with our long-term interests?" these methods provide powerful analytic support to humans' innate capacity for "what-if-ing." Choosing the challenge of sustainable development as an example, the authors discuss how these methods may be applied to real-world LTPA and a wide range of other challenges of decisionmaking under conditions of deep uncertainty.