The Signal and the Noise

Author: Nate Silver
Publisher: Penguin
ISBN: 9781101595954
Release Date: 2012-09-27
Genre: Political Science

One of Wall Street Journal's Best Ten Works of Nonfiction in 2012 New York Times Bestseller “Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War…could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade.” —New York Times Book Review "Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." —Rachel Maddow, author of Drift "A serious treatise about the craft of prediction—without academic mathematics—cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism." —New York Review of Books Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read. From the Trade Paperback edition.

The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes The Expert Guide to Nate Silver s Critically Acclaimed Book the 30 Minute Expert Series

Author: The 30 Minute Expert Series
Publisher:
ISBN: 162315121X
Release Date: 2013-03-29
Genre: Business & Economics

For a complete understanding of Nate Silver's Signal and the Noise, we strongly encourage you to purchase the original book titled The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don't by Penguin Publishing Big data has arrived! Whether you're using that data to make a billion-dollar decision to merge two companies or to choose a team to win the World Series, how do you distinguish the signal (the truth) from the noise (our all-too-human impulse to make choices based on personal bias)? In his groundbreaking work The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver brings the complexities of statistics down to earth by using real-life examples of how we all make predictions and why those predictions are often wrong. The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes is your expert guide to Nate Silver's main thesis that our decision making is filtered through our personal assumptions and beliefs as opposed to the truth of the data at hand. This concise companion details: * Nate Silver's journey from forecasting Major League Baseball players' performance to predicting the outcome of U.S. presidential elections * Both praise for and critical reactions to his ideas from such noted sources as the New York Review of Books and the Wall Street Journal * Key concepts, including analyzing prediction failures, practicing Bayesian thinking, and expanding self-awareness * Key terms, such as Bayes's theorem, with easy-to-understand definitions and examples * Recommended readings and a bibliography listing additional resources analyzing Silver's work and the phenomenon of big data The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes is a timely guide to a topic that affects all our lives. From choosing stocks, to predicting wars, to making personal changes in light of climate change, The Signal and the Noise challenges both nations and individuals to make smarter choices. About the 30 Minute Expert Series Offering a concise exploration of a book's ideas, history, application, and critical reception, the 30 Minute Expert Series is designed for busy individuals interested in acquiring an in-depth understanding of seminal works. More than just a summary, the 30 Minute Expert Series offers detailed analysis, critical presentation of key ideas and their application, extensive reading lists for additional information, and a contextual understanding of the work of leading authors. Designed as a companion to the original work, the 30 Minute Expert Series enables readers to develop expert knowledge of an important work ... in 30 minutes.

Risiko

Author: Gerd Gigerenzer
Publisher: C. Bertelsmann Verlag
ISBN: 9783641119904
Release Date: 2013-05-23
Genre: Psychology

Der neue Bestseller von Gerd Gigerenzer Erinnern wir uns an die weltweite Angst vor der Schweinegrippe, als Experten eine nie dagewesene Pandemie prognostizierten und Impfstoff für Millionen produziert wurde, der später still und heimlich entsorgt werden musste. Für Gerd Gigerenzer ist dies nur ein Beleg unseres irrationalen Umgangs mit Risiken. Und das gilt für Experten ebenso wie für Laien. An Beispielen aus Medizin, Rechtswesen und Finanzwelt erläutert er, wie die Psychologie des Risikos funktioniert, was sie mit unseren entwicklungsgeschichtlich alten Hirnstrukturen zu tun hat und welche Gefahren damit einhergehen. Dabei analysiert er die ungute Rolle von irreführenden Informationen, die von Medien und Fachleuten verbreitet werden. Doch Risiken und Ungewissheiten richtig einzuschätzen kann und sollte jeder lernen. Diese Risikoschulung erprobt Gigerenzer seit vielen Jahren mit verblüffenden Ergebnissen. Sein Fazit: Schon Kinder können lernen, mit Risiken realistisch umzugehen und sich gegen Panikmache wie Verharmlosung zu immunisieren.

The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes

Author:
Publisher:
ISBN: 1623150523
Release Date: 2012-11-01
Genre: Bayesian statistical decision theory

The Signal and the Noise …in 30 Minutes is the essential guide to quickly understanding the fundamental components of prediction outlined in Nate Silver’s bestselling book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail ¬– but Some Don’t. In The Signal and the Noise bestselling author, political analyst, and statistician Nate Silver investigates the fundamentals of forecasting and answers why too much information can be misleading. Exploring a variety of fields, ranging from politics to poker to Wall Street and global warming, Silver explores why some forecasts are successful and, perhaps more telling, why so many fail. Stressing the importance of acknowledging personal bias, Silver posits that better forecasters possess a superior understanding of uncertainty and are driven by truth and humility while overconfidence can lead to failure. Presenting a framework for what constitutes a good forecast, Silver provides insight and tools for understanding how to successfully utilize Big Data and decipher meaningful signals from random noise.

The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes

Author:
Publisher: Callisto Media Inc
ISBN: 9781623150532
Release Date: 2012-11-20
Genre: Business & Economics

The Signal and the Noise …in 30 Minutes is the essential guide to quickly understanding the fundamental components of prediction outlined in Nate Silver’s bestselling book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail ¬– but Some Don’t. In The Signal and the Noise bestselling author, political analyst, and statistician Nate Silver investigates the fundamentals of forecasting and answers why too much information can be misleading. Exploring a variety of fields, ranging from politics to poker to Wall Street and global warming, Silver explores why some forecasts are successful and, perhaps more telling, why so many fail. Stressing the importance of acknowledging personal bias, Silver posits that better forecasters possess a superior understanding of uncertainty and are driven by truth and humility while overconfidence can lead to failure. Presenting a framework for what constitutes a good forecast, Silver provides insight and tools for understanding how to successfully utilize Big Data and decipher meaningful signals from random noise.

Von Nerds Einh rnern und Disruption

Author: Dan Lyons
Publisher: Redline Wirtschaft
ISBN: 9783864149245
Release Date: 2016-10-07
Genre: Business & Economics

Er war 25 Jahre lang Journalist, dann stand er von einem Tag auf den anderen auf der Straße: Dan Lyons wurde mit 52 Jahren einfach aus dem Team wegrationalisiert. Was also tun? Da kam das Jobangebot von HubSpot, einem Bostoner Start-up, genau richtig: Sie bieten dem altgedienten Journalisten einen Stapel Aktien für den nicht näher bestimmten Job des »Marketingtypen«. Was soll da schon schiefgehen? Doch es kommt, wie es bei der Konstellation kommen muss: Schnell wird klar, dass bei seinem Job bei HubSpot ungefähr alles schiefläuft, was schieflaufen kann. Seine Kollegen sind im Schnitt halb so alt, statt Bürostühlen gibt es Sitzbälle, Spam wird als »liebenswerter Marketingcontent« bezeichnet und überhaupt erinnert die Atmosphäre bei HubSpot eher an einen immerwährenden Kindergeburtstag. Dass das nicht lange gutgehen kann, ist vorprogrammiert ... Dieses Buch bietet einzigartige Einblicke in die Start-up-Welt!

Dieses Mal ist alles anders

Author: Carmen Reinhart
Publisher: FinanzBuch Verlag
ISBN: 9783862484386
Release Date: 2010-03-15
Genre: Political Science

Dieses Mal ist alles anders. Die derzeitige Krise ist überhaupt nicht vergleichbar mit vergangenen Situationen – darin sind sich die Experten einig, wann immer ein Wirtschaftssystem oder ein Staat zusammenbricht. Carmen Reinhart und Kenneth Rogoff haben die Crashs der letzten 800 Jahre analysiert. Ihr erstaunliches Ergebnis: In Wahrheit sind es doch immer die gleichen Fehler, die zum Kollaps geführt haben.

Die Zukunft

Author: Al Gore
Publisher: Siedler Verlag
ISBN: 9783641129224
Release Date: 2014-05-12
Genre: Social Science

Al Gore, der ehemalige Vizepräsident der USA, Friedensnobelpreisträger und Bestsellerautor, wagt in seinem neuen Buch einen Blick in die Zukunft. Er identifiziert diejenigen Kräfte, die unser Leben in den kommenden Jahrzehnten am stärksten verändern werden, und zeichnet so ein beeindruckend detailliertes Bild der Welt von morgen. Denn, so Gore, nur wem es gelingt, die Chancen und Risiken der Zukunft zu erkennen, kann sie auch gestalten. Wir leben in einer Zeit umwälzender Veränderungen. Aus der Vielzahl der Kräfte, die unsere Welt formen, greift Al Gore diejenigen heraus, die unsere Zukunft am radikalsten prägen werden: Neben der weiter zunehmenden Globalisierung der Wirtschaft sind das die Verschiebung der geopolitischen Machtverhältnisse, eine fehlgeleitete, allein auf Wachstum ausgerichtete Wirtschaftspolitik, der nicht nachhaltige Umgang mit unserer Umwelt und unseren Ressourcen sowie die Revolutionen in der digitalen Kommunikation, in der Biotechnik, den Neurowissenschaften und der Gentechnik. Inwiefern wir diese Entwicklungen gewinnbringend nutzen können und ab wann sie für uns zum Risiko werden, das debattiert Gore in seinem neuen, umfassenden Bestseller über unsere Zukunft.

big data work

Author: Thomas H. Davenport
Publisher: Vahlen
ISBN: 9783800648153
Release Date: 2014-10-15
Genre: Fiction

Big Data in Unternehmen. Dieses neue Buch gibt Managern ein umfassendes Verständnis dafür, welche Bedeutung Big Data für Unternehmen zukünftig haben wird und wie Big Data tatsächlich genutzt werden kann. Am Ende jedes Kapitels aktivieren Fragen, selbst nach Lösungen für eine erfolgreiche Implementierung und Nutzung von Big Data im eigenen Unternehmen zu suchen. Die Schwerpunkte - Warum Big Data für Sie und Ihr Unternehmen wichtig ist - Wie Big Data Ihre Arbeit, Ihr Unternehmen und Ihre Branche verändern - - wird - Entwicklung einer Big Data-Strategie - Der menschliche Aspekt von Big Data - Technologien für Big Data - Wie Sie erfolgreich mit Big Data arbeiten - Was Sie von Start-ups und Online-Unternehmen lernen können - Was Sie von großen Unternehmen lernen können: Big Data und Analytics 3.0 Der Experte Thomas H. Davenport ist Professor für Informationstechnologie und -management am Babson College und Forschungswissenschaftler am MIT Center for Digital Business. Zudem ist er Mitbegründer und Forschungsdirektor am International Institute for Analytics und Senior Berater von Deloitte Analytics.

Wem geh rt die Zukunft

Author: Jaron Lanier
Publisher: Hoffmann und Campe
ISBN: 9783455851137
Release Date: 2014-02-08
Genre: Political Science

"Du bist nicht der Kunde der Internetkonzerne. Du bist ihr Produkt." Spätestens seit den Enthüllungen des Whistleblowers Edward Snowden ist klar: Die "schöne neue Welt" nimmt Gestalt an, und es wird höchste Zeit, ihr etwas entgegenzusetzen. Internetpionier und Cyberguru Jaron Lanier liefert eine profunde Analyse der aktuellen Trends in der Netzwerkökonomie, die sich in Richtung Totalüberwachung und Ausbeutung der Massen bewegt. Der Bestseller aus den USA endlich auf Deutsch!

Open Innovation

Author: Abbie Griffin
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9781118770856
Release Date: 2014-10-07
Genre: Business & Economics

A clear, practical guide to implementing Open Innovation for new product development Open Innovation: New Product Development Essentials from the PDMA is a comprehensive guide to the theory and practice of the Open Innovation method. Written by experts from the Product Development and Management Association, the book packages a collection of Open Innovation tools in a digestible and actionable format. Real-world case studies drawn from the authors' own successes and failures illustrate the concepts presented, providing accurate representation of the opportunities and challenges of Open Innovation implementation. Key tools are presented with a focus on immediate applications for business, allowing NPD professionals to easily discern where this cutting edge development method can push innovation forward. Open Innovation assumes that companies can and should use both internal and external ideas and paths to market, permeating the boundaries between firm and environment. Innovations transfer outward and inward through purchase, licensing, joint ventures, and spin-offs, allowing companies to expand beyond their own research and dramatically improve productivity through collaboration. PDMA Essentials provides practical guidance on exploiting the Open Innovation model to these ends, with clear guidance on all aspects of the new product development process. Topics include: Product platforming and idea competitions Customer immersion and interaction Collaborative product design and development Innovation networks, rewards, and incentives Many practitioners charged with innovation have only a vague understanding of the specific tools available for Open Innovation, and how they might be applied. As the marketplace shifts dramatically to keep pace with changing consumer behaviors, remaining relevant increasingly means ramping up innovation processes. PDMA Essentials provides the tools NPD practitioners need to implement a leading innovation method, and drive continued growth.

Trillion Dollar Economists

Author: Robert Litan
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9781118781838
Release Date: 2014-08-28
Genre: Business & Economics

A detailed look at how economists shaped the world, and how the legacy continues Trillion Dollar Economists explores the prize-winning ideas that have shaped business decisions, business models, and government policies, expanding the popular idea of the economist's role from one of forecaster to one of innovator. Written by the former Director of Economic Research at Bloomberg Government, the Kauffman Foundation and the Brookings Institution, this book describes the ways in which economists have helped shape the world – in some cases, dramatically enough to be recognized with a Nobel Prize or Clark Medal. Detailed discussion of how economists think about the world and the pace of future innovation leads to an examination of the role, importance, and limits of the market, and economists' contributions to business and policy in the past, present, and future. Few economists actually forecast the economy's performance. Instead, the bulk of the profession is concerned with how markets work, and how they can be made more efficient and productive to generate the things people want to buy for a better life. Full of interviews with leading economists and industry leaders, Trillion Dollar Economists showcases the innovations that have built modern business and policy. Readers will: Review the basics of economics and the innovation of economists, including market failures and the macro-micro distinction Discover the true power of economic ideas when used directly in business, as exemplified by Priceline and Google Learn how economists contributed to policy platforms in transportation, energy, telecommunication, and more Explore the future of economics in business applications, and the policy ideas, challenges, and implications Economists have helped firms launch new businesses, established new ways of making money, and shaped government policy to create new opportunities and a new landscape on which businesses compete. Trillion Dollar Economists provides a comprehensive exploration of these contributions, and a detailed look at innovation to come.

It s Not the How or the What but the Who

Author: Claudio Fernández-Aráoz
Publisher: Harvard Business Review Press
ISBN: 9781625271532
Release Date: 2014-05-13
Genre: Business & Economics

Succeed by mastering the art of the who Why surround yourself with the best? Because it matters—in all aspects of life. In fact, in professional environments, getting people right—what global leadership authority Claudio Fernández-Aráoz calls “the art of great ‘who’ decisions”—marks the difference between success and failure. To thrive, you need to identify those with the highest potential, get them in your corner and on your team, and help them grow. Yet surprisingly very few of us are able to meet that challenge. This series of short and engaging essays outlines the obstacles to great “who” decisions and offers solutions to address them in a systematic way. Drawing from several decades of experience in global executive search and talent development, as well as the latest management and psychology research, Fernández-Aráoz offers wisdom and practical advice to improve the choices we make about employees and mentors, business partners and friends, top corporate leaders and even elected officials. The personal stories and cutting-edge studies described in the book will help you understand both your own failings and the external forces commonly at play in staffing decisions. The author shares concrete recommendations on how to select the best people, bring out their strengths, foster collective greatness in the groups you’ve assembled, and create not only better organizations but also a better society. Starting with the cases of Amazon pioneer Jeff Bezos and Brazilian tycoon Roger Agnelli and continuing with individual and corporate examples from around the world, Fernández-Aráoz paints a vivid picture of what great “who” decisions look like and presents a fresh and commanding argument about why they matter more than ever today.

Machine Learning

Author: Jason Bell
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9781118889497
Release Date: 2014-10-20
Genre: Mathematics

Dig deep into the data with a hands-on guide to machine learning Machine Learning: Hands-On for Developers and Technical Professionals provides hands-on instruction and fully-coded working examples for the most common machine learning techniques used by developers and technical professionals. The book contains a breakdown of each ML variant, explaining how it works and how it is used within certain industries, allowing readers to incorporate the presented techniques into their own work as they follow along. A core tenant of machine learning is a strong focus on data preparation, and a full exploration of the various types of learning algorithms illustrates how the proper tools can help any developer extract information and insights from existing data. The book includes a full complement of Instructor's Materials to facilitate use in the classroom, making this resource useful for students and as a professional reference. At its core, machine learning is a mathematical, algorithm-based technology that forms the basis of historical data mining and modern big data science. Scientific analysis of big data requires a working knowledge of machine learning, which forms predictions based on known properties learned from training data. Machine Learning is an accessible, comprehensive guide for the non-mathematician, providing clear guidance that allows readers to: Learn the languages of machine learning including Hadoop, Mahout, and Weka Understand decision trees, Bayesian networks, and artificial neural networks Implement Association Rule, Real Time, and Batch learning Develop a strategic plan for safe, effective, and efficient machine learning By learning to construct a system that can learn from data, readers can increase their utility across industries. Machine learning sits at the core of deep dive data analysis and visualization, which is increasingly in demand as companies discover the goldmine hiding in their existing data. For the tech professional involved in data science, Machine Learning: Hands-On for Developers and Technical Professionals provides the skills and techniques required to dig deeper.